On Monday, we wrote about how no one knows what to think about the 2025 national champions heading into 2026. After finishing at No. 1 last season, it's a massive guessing game where to start Indiana this year.
In my mind, though, there's no question about who should start this upcoming season at No. 1. It's Notre Dame.
Before we go further, I want to try something dangerous: I want to make an argument where both points are true. The Fighting Irish deservedly missed the College Football Playoff after losing coin-flip games to Miami and Texas A&M and then beating up an unimpressive schedule, but if they had made it, Notre Dame could have won the whole thing -- or at least played for the championship.
The advanced metrics put 2025 Notre Dame in closer company with Indiana, Miami, Ohio State than most of the rest of the actual CFP bracket. The Irish were No. 4 in FEI offense and No. 6 in defense; Indiana was the only other team to rank in the top-6 on both sides of the ball. They were second in unadjusted scoring value per possession, 0.01 points per possession behind Indiana and .11 ahead of No. 3 Ohio State. They were second in net points per drive, second in net available yards, and first by a relative mile in net yards per play.
Yes, Notre Dame played a soft schedule after Sept. 13, but they hammered that schedule. The Irish's 10 wins came by an average of 30 points per game, with the closest margin at 10. The algorithms said Notre Dame treated that schedule like a team capable of winning a national championship should.
Why does any of that matter moving forward? Because Notre Dame returns more experience than any team in college football.
CBS says Notre Dame returns 66 percent of its snaps, including 73 percent on defense. Bill Connelly's SP+, which takes transfers into account, places Notre Dame at 72 percent, including 77 percent on defense. Those numbers might actually undersell Notre Dame's offense, because wide receiver Jaden Greathouse -- one of my favorite players in college football -- returns after catching just four passes last season. The senior tortured Penn State and Ohio State in the 2024 Playoff, catching 13 passes for 233 yards and three touchdowns. There's no replacing the singular excellence of a Jeremiyah Love, but junior running back Aneyas Williams would've started for most schools not named Notre Dame -- he's averaged 7.6 a carry in spot duty over the past two seasons -- and CJ Carr should be able to step into Franchise QB Mode after ranking fifth nationally in passing efficiency as a freshman last season.
And so while Notre Dame returns more of a championship-quality roster than any of its rivals, Marcus Freeman's team also benefits from, and is burdened by, another soft schedule. Consider that Notre Dame doesn't play a team that won more than five games a year ago until their Oct. 17 trip to BYU. I'll say that again: Notre Dame's first game against a winning team from last season isn't until the middle of October. Sure, the Irish play BYU on the road, Navy at a neutral site, and they get Miami and SMU at home... but that's pretty much it. Past failure isn't always a guarantee of future performance, but two-thirds of Notre Dame's schedule lost at least eight games last season. They play the Big Ten's 15th, 16th, and 18th place teams, and the ACC's 14th, 16th, and 17th place teams.
Look, I don't like this any more than you do. In fact, if I were in Irish player, coach or fan, I would find this schedule highly inconvenient. This is a very, very good football team, and all their accomplishments until, oh, New Year's Day will be overshadowed by the "They ain't played nobody, PAWWWL" crowd, and that crowd will have a point. Depending on who it is and how it occurs, one could make a very convincing argument that a 9-3 SEC or Big Ten team would deserve a CFP spot over an 11-1 Notre Dame.
There's a reason FanDuel made Notre Dame one of two Power 4 teams with an 11.5 win total back in March (and the other, Texas Tech, is surely lower today.) No team in college football is a safer bet entering the season. Sure, the schedule is easier than the competition, but the team is also better, and the roster is more experienced. And all of that together is why Notre Dame should start the race for the 2026 national championship in first.