We write this piece every year because it remains true every year, and we will continue to write this piece each year so long as it remains true. There is no shortcut to winning football games, but if there was a shortcut, it would come through controlling the turnover margin.
With most FBS teams five games into their 2025 journeys, enough time has passed for teams that are consistently good at turning their opponents over while denying the same opportunities for their opponents to be rewarded for doing so.
As such, there's one group of 21 teams that are a combined 88-19 on the season without a single losing record among them. They're all plus-1 or better in turnover margin.
1. Alabama -- 1.80 (4-1)
2. UNLV -- 1.60 (5-0)
2. Louisiana Tech -- 1.60 (4-1)
2. North Texas -- 1.60 (5-0)
5. Tulane -- 1.40 (4-1)
5. Maryland -- 1.40 (4-1)
5. Temple -- 1.40 (3-2)
8. Texas Tech -- 1.20 (5-0)
8. Southern Miss -- 1.20 (3-2)
8. Nebraska -- 1.20 (4-1)
8. Miami -- 1.20 (5-0)
8. Michigan -- 1.20 (4-1)
8. Indiana -- 1.20 (5-0)
14. Illinois -- 1.17 (5-1)
14. UConn -- 1.17 (4-2)
16. Arizona State -- 1.00 (4-1)
16. South Carolina -- 1.00 (3-2)
16. BYU -- 1.00 (5-0)
16. Notre Dame -- 1.00 (3-2)
16. Washington -- 1.00 (4-1)
16. Oregon -- 1.00 (5-0)
That collective .822 winning percentage correlates to the near 80 percent winning percentage we found while tracking every FBS game across three seasons in Winning Box Scores.
Furthermore, 51 FBS teams are 0.4 or greater in turnover margin. Four are below .500 on the season.
Look, turnover margin is not an absolutely fool proof stat, but it's close. The worst team with the best turnover margin last year was San Diego State, who managed to go 3-9 despite finishing plus-3 in takeaways. Ohio State was only plus-3 in its 16-game run to last season's national championship, though one could argue those Buckeyes were so talented they could overcome their middling turnover ratio (Ohio State was even across its 4-game College Football Playoff run), while the other three semifinalists were plus-5 or better. Furthermore, all 12 CFP participants entered the tournament even at worst in turnover margin; SMU and Georgia finished with a negative turnover margin, but that's because they were both minus-2 in their one-and-done CFP appearances.
Let's check back in December and see where the 12 participants stand in turnover margin. I'll set the over/under of those with a positive margin at 11.5.