About a decade ago, trusted Bill Belichick colleague Michael Lombardi introduced a concept around what has become known as "The Middle Eight."
The Middle Eight is a way of referring to the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half, and Belichick believed that while most coaches were focused on the P&10 plays, base downs, and third down game plans, The Middle Eight was being overlooked and having a detailed plan for it was a way to gain a competitive advantage.
Lombardi has been cited (exactly where has been tough to track down) as sharing, "Belichick actually built an entire game-management theory around this simple realization. If the Patriots could manage a drive at the end of the second quarter, that would keep the opposing offense off the field for almost an hour of real time. For a guy like Manning, that’s an eternity. No offense, no points. No plays, no rhythm. When Manning does finally get back in the game, he and his offense have lost their edge.”
Its a theory that makes a lot of sense, and one that has been adopted and used by coaching staffs around the country in an effort to gain an edge. According to Sportank, a study done by Sportssource Analytics credited teams at the FBS level that won The Middle Eight went on to win 74% of games at one point recently.
However, recent data proves that The Middle Eight is actually nothing more than a myth.
Respected football analytics voice Dave Bartoo recently shared on Matrix Analytical Solutions shares that the magic eight-minute block doesn't exist.
In a study of 10,675 games at the FBS level dating back to 2010 examining the 8-minute block in question, Bartoo took out the scoring of each block to determine if The Middle Eight impacted the final score in the way Belichick had everyone believing. His data went beyond simply "winning" a block, and aimed at illustrating the frequency of game impact outcome, including ties, by removing the block scoring.
Among his key findings after splitting games into blocks that include the first and last block of each quarter, as well as a bridge period between quarters 1/2 and 3/4 in addition to The Middle Eight, Bartoo found that all 11 game blocks cluster between 9.47% and 12.47% in terms of overall impact on the game. The Middle Eight ranked 2nd of those 11 blocks (12.07% impact), but not by a margin worthy of treating it any different than the other blocks studied, as even the best block had an impact graded at just under 12.5%.
So 87.5% of games are determined by factors outside any single 8-minute window.
In close games, The Middle Eight ranked about middle of the pack at #6 in game impact, while it ranked #2 among the blocks studied in home games (about 9% impact) and #5 in road games (about 6% impact).
Bartoo's findings revealed that while the The Middle Eight belongs among the top tier of blocks, it is alongside the last 8 minutes of the second quarter, and last final 8 minutes of the fourth quarter and the tight cluster of findings illustrates that the importance of playing 60-minutes of quality football is more important than any single block, or pair of blocks.
Interestingly enough, Bartoo's findings go on to share some blocks coaches should value slightly more in home and away contests in what he refers to as "venue-appropriate game planning."
During home games, an emphasis on the first 8 minute block to open the game was shown to provide the largest advantage (5.14pp advantage), and also points out that road teams had a tendency to surge late in games, so keeping the throttle down late in the game should be valued.
With that in mind, home game game planning allocation should ideally be focused 40% on quarters 1-2, 30% on The Middle 8, and 30% on the fourth quarter.
On the road, visiting teams should find a way to survive the first eight minutes of the game with a conservative opening script to avoid turnovers that could tip the scales in the home team's favor even more, and teams that stayed within one score through halftime held an advantage come the fourth quarter when aggressiveness from play callers should really emerge.
The road game plan should consist of 25% surviving quarter 1, 25% staying within a competitive striking distance, and a whopping 50% on fourth quarter execution.
Head over to Bartoo's full piece to see full graphs and his intriguing findings via this link, and stay tuned to The Scoop for the latest.