To understand the state of modern quarterback play, go to Norman, Oklahoma.
Lincoln Riley got to campus in 2015, which happened to be the season Baker Mayfield gained eligibility. The Texas Tech transfer, a walk-on, beat out incumbent Trevor Knight and led the Sooners to a Big 12 title and College Football Playoff appearance. He kept the job through 2017, went No. 1 in the draft, and was succeeded by Kyler Murray, a Texas A&M transfer. Murray kept the job for a year, went No. 1 in the draft, then handed the torch to Jalen Hurts, an Alabama transfer.
Dating back to the 2015 opener, Riley and Oklahoma have, together and separately, started transfer quarterbacks in 43 of their last 66 games and counting.
After five years in which the OU QB1 went fourth, third, first, first, and second in Heisman voting, Riley finally started a high school signee in 2020, redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler. True freshman Caleb Williams replaced Rattler midway through 2021 -- and then Riley left for USC last November.
Now, Rattler starts at South Carolina, Williams at USC, and Oklahoma starts another transfer, Dillion Gabriel, who'd actually transferred from UCF to UCLA before transferring again to Oklahoma.
In total, four FBS starting quarterbacks began who began their FBS careers at Oklahoma are now starting elsewhere, while Oklahoma itself starts a transfer of its own.
It's not so much that the modern quarterback recruit has to start immediately, but he basically has to start at first opportunity.
For instance, Bryce Young did not enroll at Alabama in 2020 expecting to unseat fifth-year senior Mac Jones as a true freshman, just as CJ Stroud did not expect to beat out Justin Fields that same season. But had Young and Stroud not won their respective jobs heading into 2021, it's highly unlikely either would be in crimson or scarlet today.
A survey of the 2022 FBS landscape found 66 schools are starting QB1s who did not sign out of high school (40 who transferred this offseason, six who are on their third school). For every Aidan O'Connell -- a former walk-on who did not start at Purdue until his fourth year on campus -- there's a Charlie Brewer. Brewer started four years at Baylor, transferred to Utah in 2021 and beat Texas transfer Cameron Rising out of camp, got injured and lost the job to Rising, then transferred to Liberty in 2022, beat out another fellow transfer Kaidon Salter (Tennessee) in camp, then got injured again in the opener.
Every FBS conference will start at least five transfers in 2022, led by the Pac-12's 10 (10!!) and the Sun Belt's nine.
Additionally, another 42 schools start entrenched quarterbacks who saw significant action within their first two years on campus, or are within their first two years on campus right now.
FBS QB1s who saw significant action within two years of signing or transferred in
American: 10 of 11
ACC: 12 of 14
Big Ten: 8 of 14
Big 12: 8 of 10
Conference USA: 8 of 11
Independents: 5 of 7
MAC: 10 of 12
Mountain West: 11 of 12
Pac-12: 12 of 12
SEC: 11 of 14
Sun Belt: 12 of 14
Out of 131 schools, that leaves a select 23 QB1s (17.6 percent) who waited more than two years to start for the school they signed with out of high school.
A school-by-school breakdown can be found below.
AMERICAN
Cincinnati -- Ben Bryant, transfer (Eastern Michigan)
East Carolina -- Holton Ahlers, started five games as a true freshman
Houston -- Clayton Tune, originally won job as a true sophomore
Memphis -- Seth Henigan, originally started as a true freshman
Navy -- Tai Lavatai, originally started as a true sophomore
South Florida -- Gerry Bohanon, transfer (Baylor)
SMU -- Tanner Mordecai, transfer (Oklahoma)
Temple -- D'Wan Mathis, transfer (Georgia)
Tulane -- Michael Pratt, started nine games as a true freshman
Tulsa -- Davis Brin, won job as a RS sophomore
UCF -- John Rhys Plumlee, transfer (Ole Miss)
ACC
Atlantic
Boston College -- Phil Jurkovec, transfer (Notre Dame)
Clemson -- DJ Uiagaleilei, originally started as a true sophomore
Florida State -- Jordan Travis, transfer (Louisville)
Louisville -- Malik Cunningham, originally started as a RS sophomore
NC State -- Devin Leary, became first RS freshman to start at QB since Russell Wilson
Syracuse -- Garrett Shrader, transfer (Syracuse)
Wake Forest -- Sam Hartman, originally started as a true freshman*
* presently injured but entrenched as Wake's starter
Coastal
Duke -- Riley Leonard, true sophomore
Georgia Tech -- Jeff Sims, originally started as a true freshman
Miami -- Tyler Van Dyke, started as a true freshman
North Carolina -- Drake Maye, RS freshman
Pittsburgh -- Kedon Slovis, transfer (USC)
Virginia -- Brennan Armstrong, originally won job as a junior
Virginia Tech -- Grant Wells, transfer (Marshall)
BIG TEN
East
Indiana -- Connor Bazelak, transfer (Missouri)
Maryland -- Taulia Tagovailoa, transfer (Alabama)
Michigan -- Cade McNamara, originally started as a RS sophomore
Michigan State -- Payton Thorne, originally started as a RS sophomore
Ohio State -- CJ Stroud, originally started as a RS freshman
Penn State -- Sean Clifford, originally started as a RS sophomore
Rutgers -- Evan Simon, redshirt sophomore
West
Illinois -- Tommy DeVito, transfer (Syracuse)
Iowa -- Spencer Petras, won job as a RS sophomore
Minnesota -- Tanner Morgan, started six games as a true freshman
Nebraska -- Casey Thompson, transfer (Texas)
Northwestern -- Ryan Hilinski, transfer (South Carolina)
Purdue -- Aidan O'Connell, former walk-on; won job as a fifth-year senior
Wisconsin -- Graham Mertz, won job as a RS freshman
BIG 12
Baylor -- Blake Shapen, won job as a RS sophomore
Iowa State -- Hunter Dekkers, redshirt sophomore
Kansas -- Jalon Daniels, originally started as a true freshman
Kansas State -- Adrian Martinez, transfer (Nebraska)
Oklahoma -- Dillon Gabriel, transfer (UCLA via UCF)
Oklahoma State -- Spencer Sanders, originally started as a RS freshman
Texas -- Quinn Ewers, transfer (Ohio State)
TCU -- Chandler Morris, transfer (Oklahoma)
Texas Tech -- Tyler Shough, transfer (Oregon)
West Virginia -- JT Daniels, transfer (Georgia via USC)
CONFERENCE USA
Charlotte -- Chris Reynolds, originally won job as RS freshman
Florida Atlantic -- N'Kosi Perry, transfer (Miami)
FIU -- Gunnar Holmberg, transfer (Duke)
Louisiana Tech -- Matthew Downing, transfer (TCU)
Middle Tennessee -- Chase Cunningham, won job as a redshirt junior
North Texas -- Austin Aune, transfer (Arkansas)
Rice -- Wiley Green, won job as a redshirt junior
UAB -- Dylan Hopkins, started five games as a RS freshman
UTEP -- Gavin Hardison, originally won job as RS sophomore
UTSA -- Frank Harris, Fifth-year senior that has started every game when healthy
Western Kentucky -- Austin Reed, transfer (West Florida)
INDEPENDENTS
Army -- Cade Ballard, won job as a RS junior
BYU -- Jaren Hall, won job as a RS sophomore
Connecticut -- Zion Turner, true freshman
Liberty -- Charlie Brewer, transfer (Utah via Baylor)
Massachusetts -- Gino Campiotti, transfer (Modesto JC)
New Mexico State -- Diego Pavia, transfer (New Mexico Military Institute)
Notre Dame -- Tyler Buchner, true sophomore
MAC
East
Akron -- DJ Irons, transfer (Iowa Central Community College)
Bowling Green -- Matt McDonald, transfer (Boston College)
Buffalo -- Cole Snyder, transfer (Buffalo)
Kent State -- Collin Schlee, redshirt junior
Miami (Ohio) -- Brett Gabbert, won job as a true freshman
Ohio -- Kurtis Rourke, originally won job as a RS freshman
West
Ball State -- John Paddock, first-time starter as a RS junior
Central Michigan -- Daniel Richardson, originally started as RS freshman
Eastern Michigan -- Taylor Powell, transfer (Troy)
Northern Illinois -- Rocky Lombardi, transfer (Michigan State)
Toledo -- Dequan Finn, won job as a RS freshman
Western Michigan -- Jack Salopek, redshirt freshman
MOUNTAIN WEST
Mountain
Air Force -- Haaziq Daniels, won job as a RS freshman
Boise State -- Hank Bachmeier, originally started as a true freshman
Colorado State -- Clay Millen, redshirt freshman
New Mexico -- Miles Kendrick, transfer (Kansas)
Utah State -- Logan Bonner, transfer (Arkansas State)
Wyoming -- Andrew Peasley, transfer (Utah State)
West
Fresno State -- Jake Haener, transfer (Washington)
Hawai'i -- Brayden Schraeger, true sophomore; one of 13 TR FR to start a game in '21
Nevada -- Shane Illingworth, transfer (Oklahoma State)
San Diego State -- Braxton Burmeister, transfer (Virginia Tech via Oregon)
San Jose State -- Chevan Cordeiro, transfer (Hawaii)
UNLV -- Doug Brumfield, won job as a RS sophomore
PAC-12
Arizona -- Jayden de Laura, transfer (Washington State)
Arizona State -- Emory Jones, transfer (Florida)
Cal -- Jack Plummer, transfer (Purdue)
Colorado -- JT Shrout, transfer (Tennessee)
Oregon -- Bo Nix, transfer (Auburn)
Oregon State -- Chance Nolan, transfer (Saddleback College)
Stanford -- Tanner McKee, originally started as a true freshman
UCLA -- Dorian Thompson-Robinson, originally won job as a true freshman
USC -- Caleb Williams, transfer (Oklahoma)
Utah -- Cameron Rising, transfer (Texas)
Washington -- Michael Penix, Jr., transfer (Indiana)
Washington State -- Cam Ward, transfer (Incarnate Word)
SEC
East
Florida -- Anthony Richardson, saw significant action as a RS freshman
Georgia -- Stetson Bennett IV, originally won job as fourth-year junior
Kentucky -- Will Levis, transfer (Penn State)
Missouri -- Brady Cook, redshirt sophomore
South Carolina -- Spencer Rattler, transfer (Oklahoma)
Tennessee -- Hendon Hooker, transfer (Virginia Tech)
Vanderbilt -- Mike Wright, originally won job as a true sophomore
West
Alabama -- Bryce Young, started as a true sophomore
Arkansas -- KJ Jefferson, originally started as a RS sophomore
Auburn -- TJ Finley, transfer (LSU)
LSU -- Jaydon Daniels, transfer (Arizona State)
Ole Miss -- Jaxson Dart, transfer (USC)
Mississippi State -- Will Rogers, became first Mike Leach QB to start as a true freshman in 2020
Texas A&M -- Haynes King, originally won job as RS freshman
SUN BELT
East
Appalachian State -- Chase Brice, transfer (Clemson)
Coastal Carolina -- Grayson McCall, originally started as a RS freshman
Georgia Southern -- Kyle Vantrease, transfer (Buffalo)
Georgia State -- Darren Grainger, transfer (Furman)
James Madison -- Todd Centeio, transfer (Colorado State via Temple)
Marshall -- Henry Colombi, transfer (Texas Tech)
Old Dominion -- Hayden Wolff, won job as a RS freshman
West
Arkansas State -- James Blackman, transfer (Florida State)
Louisiana -- Chandler Fields, redshirt sophomore
South Alabama -- Carter Bradley, transfer (Toledo)
Southern Miss -- Ty Keyes, redshirt freshman
Texas State -- Layne Hatcher, transfer (Arkansas State)
Troy -- Gunnar Watson, originally started as RS sophomore
ULM -- Chandler Rogers, transfer (Blinn JC via Southern Miss)