If not now for James Franklin, when?: On the Line

James Franklin had answers for Urban Meyer, but not for Ryan Day. At least so far. From 2016-18, Penn State and Ohio State were effectively dead even as programs. The cumulative score of their three games was Nittany Lions 88, Buckeyes 87; Ohio State won two of the three, but Penn State held a double-digit fourth quarter lead in both Buckeye victories. All three years, the Penn State-Ohio State game was effectively the Big Ten Championship.

But then Ryan Day took over, and James Franklin has been a step behind since. Four games, four Buckeye wins by two scores. 

In Game 1 of what will be the biggest round robin of the season, the question between who needs a win more between No. 7 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State has a simple answer: both of them.

-- Franklin is 1-8 against Ohio State, and a loss Saturday (noon ET, Fox) turns No. 2 Michigan into a must-win game for Penn State.

-- Day is 4-0 against Penn State and 34-0 in all Big Ten games other than the last two games against Michigan, but those Michigan losses hang over everryyything. If Ohio State can't beat Penn State at home, the thinking will go, what are their odds of winning in the Big House?

Look at it this way: the winner of this game may not even have to beat Michigan to reach the Big Ten Championship, depending on how the next five weeks play out. But the loser will have to beat the No. 2 team in the country, a team that's won 25 straight regular-season games, to fulfill its goals this season.

Both of these teams are vulnerable, but to me the game boils down to this: Penn State will have to find a way to produce explosive plays to win on the road. The Nittany Lions are 79th in yards per play -- they've been under five in all three Big Ten games so far -- and they're tied for 129th in gains of 20-plus yards. Penn State can't win this game stringing together 12-play drives. Ohio State is No. 2 in the country in defensive yards per play... and Penn State is No. 1. Take the under.

Whoever loses in Miami on Saturday night is in for a bad, bad time. Clemson hasn't lost three games since last year, but they haven't dropped three regular season games before November since, ahem, 2021. Okay, well, we're definitely on the downward slope of the Dabo Dynasty, but a loss Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, ACC Network) puts the Tigers at 4-3 for the first time since 2010. That was pre-Chad Morris, pre-Brent Venables, a year that saw the Tigers go 6-7. 

Clemson would hire Morris that off-season, win the ACC title the following year, and hire Venables the following winter, so a loss here puts a book end on the glory days in the Upstate. 

Miami, meanwhile, is still reeling after Knee Gate two weeks ago. I'm sure they've moved on internally -- or have they? -- but a loss will make it easy to draw a line between what would have been a 5-0, Top 15 start to Mario Cristobal's second season and reality: a 4-3 record, and an 0-3 mark in ACC play. In what's supposed to be a leap-forward year for his tenure, if Cristobal doesn't win this game he'll be 9-10 overall, 3-8 in ACC play, and 0-6 in home ACC games. 

The fact that this game, between two of the conference's premier brands, airs on ACC Network says it all, does it not? 

Does USC hit reset or rewind? Lincoln Riley said all of USC's goals are still out ahead of them after Saturday's 48-20 loss at Notre Dame. That's true. So, too, are their demons.

The 18th-ranked Trojans are alone in first place in the rough-and-tumble Pac-12 with No. 14 Utah, No. 5 Washington, No. 9 Oregon and No. 25 UCLA still ahead. That's the good news. The bad news is... they've still got to play Utah, Washington, Oregon and UCLA.

The thing about average teams is they find ways to lose games, and flirting with losses against Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona, the Trojans finally followed through in a big way in South Bend, with the offense giving the defense a week off as the program's whipping boy.

Utah beat USC twice last season, both times pummeling them in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Trojans by a combined 38-14. 

Will the memory of those games enter both sides' minds if the score is close on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, Fox)? Utah (122nd in yards per play, 111th in scoring) should not be able to keep pace with USC (3rd, 2nd). USC should win this game. 

But a loss Saturday drops Riley to 17-5 at USC... with an ongoing 4-game losing streak against ranked opponents, and three more still to come. 

The last time Duke faced an opportunity similar to the one on Saturday night? Try Nov. 5, 1960. That's when a 13th-ranked Blue Devils squad toppled No. 4 Navy. Per my research, Duke has never beaten an AP top-5 foe on the road.

These Blue Devils have shaken off the heartbreaker to Notre Dame to secure the program's highest ranking since 1994, though it's hard to imagine Duke winning without QB Riley Leonard (backup Henry Belin IV completed four passes in last week's 24-3 win over NC State). 

No. 4 Florida State had better hope Leonard plays on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC). The Seminoles are in the thick of the Playoff race, but the weak ACC will be a hindrance on their chances should it come down to that. As of today, Duke is FSU's only ranked opponent between the opener against No. 19 LSU and the ACC Championship.

Florida State needs to beat a healthy(-ish) Duke, and beat them soundly.

Additional Games:

-- No. 22 Air Force at Navy (noon ET, CBS): Air Force is currently alone in first place in the Mountain West, but the 6-0 Falcons have more than "just" their first MW championship up for grabs. Right now, it's been AFA and Tulane for the Group of 5's Fiesta Bowl bid -- they haven't played in a New Year's Six game since 1970 -- and they're looking to retain the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. The Falcons last won consecutive C-I-C trophies in 2010-11.

-- Mississippi State at Arkansas (noon ET, ESPN): Who's going to earn the final last-place finish in the SEC West? Chances are, it's the loser of this game. 0-4 Arkansas has lost five straight overall (their two wins on the year: Western Carolina, Kent State), while State looks to avoid losing to a team on a 5-game losing skid. After this, 0-3 State visits 0-3 Auburn.

-- Baylor at Cincinnati (noon ET, ESPN+): Houston's wild-ass win over West Virginia is, to date, the only victory a Big 12 newcomer has over a returning program. Might this be No. 2? AD Mack Rhoades has demanded changes on offense; we'll see what Dave Aranda, Jeff Grimes and company have in store after their off week. 

-- No. 17 Tennessee at No. 11 Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Tennessee finally got the 15-year-old crimson monkey off its back in last season's 52-49 thriller, a game that will go down as one of the best of the decade. Big Orange hasn't beaten Bama in back-to-back years since 2003-04, and hasn't won in Tuscaloosa since '03. Tennessee leads the SEC in yards per carry for and against, a net gain of 2.9 a pop. Can Joe Milton hit just enough to keep Alabama honest?

-- Oklahoma State at West Virginia (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Someone's bound to challenge Texas for second place in the Big 12 (right?), and the winner of this one is as good a guess as any. West Virginia was looking at a 5-1 (3-0 Big 12) start until a Hail Mary loss to Houston last Thursday, while Oklahoma State has settled in after a 2-2 start, sweeping the Kansas schools in the past two weeks. 

-- Minnesota at No. 24 Iowa (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC): The over/under for this game is 32.5 as of this writing, with the Hawkeyes a 3.5-point favorite, which means Vegas sees Iowa winning something like 18-14. Hard to see the Hawkeyes stringing together six field goals. 

-- South Carolina at No. 20 Missouri (3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): The Columbia Bowl sees its combatants moving in opposite directions. South Carolina is at its boiling point, while Mizzou has a midseason All-American, homegrown former 5-star wide receiver, with another homegrown, 5-star wide receiver close to committing. And, oh yeah, the Tigers are closing in on their first 7-1 start in a decade. 

-- No. 8 Texas at Houston (4 p.m. ET, Fox): The whole "you can go 1-11 as long as Opponent X is the one" trope is a lie... usually. Dana Holgorsen might really have his generally underwhelming 30-23 tenure forgiven if he manages to win Houston's only home game with Texas between 2002 and the end of time. The Longhorns rolled up 661 yards of offense against Kansas's 93rd-ranked defense, and Houston ranks 116th. 

-- No. 13 Ole Miss at Auburn (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): Oddly enough, this is not Hugh Freeze's first game against Ole Miss since his 2017 ouster. Freeze brought his Liberty team to Oxford for a 27-14 Rebels win in 2021. That Liberty team was better than this year's Auburn outfit. 

-- No. 2 Michigan at Michigan State (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Remember last year's game? Michigan beat State 29-7, then the Spartans picked a fight in the Michigan Stadium tunnel. This game should be a similar mis-match and then some, but hopefully both teams the players keep the contact confined to the field. 

-- Army at No. 19 LSU (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): This is Army's first trip to Death Valley. The Black Knights and Tigers have played once prior, a 20-0 Army win in West Point back in 1931.