In the stunning return of the FootballScoop Podcast on Wednesday, I asked noted Baton Rouge resident Scott Roussel to define a successful season in Lane Kiffin's LSU debut. Ten wins at a minimum, he said. I'm paraphrasing here, but The Bar for Kiffin and the Tigers this year -- and each after it, to be sure -- is a Playoff berth. I don't have LSU in my Playoff bracket, and most prognosticators don't, either.
That got me thinking: How many teams expect a College Football Playoff berth this fall? I came up with 18, ranked by tiers of how upset they'd be if they missed.
Five Alarm Fire
(1) Notre Dame -- The Fighting Irish return more production than any contender, they have the easiest schedule of all true national title contenders (as evidenced by their 11.5 win total), and they're also the only team with a guaranteed berth with a top-12 ranking. There isn't a particular close second in this exercise.
(2) Oregon -- Oregon is similarly talented to the next two teams on this list, but the Ducks have the advantage of a near-guaranteed 3-0 start to conference play.
(3) Texas -- The Longhorns dodged a bullet on Tuesday morning when Trevor Goosby's MRI came back without an ACL tear. You don't add a Cam Coleman, a Rasheem Biles, a Hollywood Smothers/Raleek Brown combo, etc., to miss the CFP for the second year in a row, no matter how difficult your schedule may be. A second straight empty December will push Steve Sarkisian's Texas tenure into a different, more toxic chapter.
(4) Ohio State -- I considered bumping Ohio State down a level considering the difficulty of the schedule and the replacements on defense, and then I remembered this was Ohio State. Texas missing the CFP after starting No. 1 is still following the Longhorns around a full year later; a repeat wouldn't be quite as bad for Ohio State considering Ryan Day has a title and Steve Sarkisian doesn't, but Ohio State fans have the highest expectations in college football, and for good reason. Ohio State could bank-shot their way into the CFP at 9-3 depending on how the nine and three occur, but either way the Buckeyes haven't lost more than two regular season games in a non-interim season since 2004.
(5) Miami -- Miami was the ACC's Best Team a year ago, and they just, ahem, acquired the ACC Champions' quarterback. If Miami somehow slips up and fails to win the ACC for the 23rd year in a row, the Hurricanes have a mulligan opportunity with their Nov. 7 road trip to Notre Dame.
(6) Indiana -- If we can wrap our minds around living in a world where Indiana is disappointed to miss the CFP, Curt Cignetti's team is dancing for the third year in a row if they simply go 2-2 against Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Washington, and win the eight remaining games in which they'll be double-digit favorites.
(7) Georgia -- The two-time defending SEC champions are on a mission to return to the Final Four after ending each of the past two seasons in the quarterfinals, so missing the top 12 altogether would trigger fears that Kirby Smart's best days have fallen further and further in the rearview mirror. Georgia's first 9-game SEC schedule is also relatively easy, missing Texas, Texas A&M and LSU, with its only true road tests coming at Alabama and Ole Miss. Again, not easy, but relatively easy.
A Definite Step Back
(8) Ole Miss
(9) Oklahoma
(10) Texas A&M
Lumping all three teams together in that all reached the CFP either for the first time ever or for the first time under their current coaching staff, and all three return their starting quarterbacks.
By the way, the odds of all three missing the CFP are significantly higher than all three making it back again.
(11) Texas Tech -- Even despite losing nine draft picks and presumptive starting quarterback Brendan Sorsby, this is still head-to-toe the most talented roster in the Big 12 that returns both coordinators. Texas Tech has national championship aspirations, but this year is about establishing dominance over the new-look Big 12.
An Existential Crisis
(12) Alabama -- On the surface, the AP's No. 13 team missing the CFP isn't something to get too worked up about. But Kalen DeBoer would fall to 1-for-3 in making the 12-team bracket, after You Know Who went 8-for-10 in making the 4-team bracket, and 3-for-7 in making the 2-team bracket. Some level of falling-back-to-the-pack was inevitable after Nick Saban's retirement as well as the resulting changes in moving to the transfer portal era, but a 35-point loss in the quarterfinals representing the best postseason showing under three seasons of DeBoer would fall below that.
A Definite Missed Opportunity
(13) LSU -- Lane Kiffin can talk about 2027 all he wants, but you don't spend what it takes to get Sam Leavitt, Jordan Seaton and company if you're not serious about winning as many games as possible in 2026. Six of the AP's preseason top 26 are on the schedule, but four of them have to come to Baton Rouge.
(14) BYU -- Texas Tech proved its superiority over BYU over 120 minutes on the field last season, but the Cougars return their starting quarterback while Tech is playing, in essence, a backup. BYU also the Big 12's best opportunity to make the field as an at-large thanks to its Oct. 17 home game against Notre Dame.
(15) USC -- USC's 35-man, No. 1-ranked recruiting class won't carry the burden of how far the Trojans march this fall. But they, along with the hiring of Gary Patterson, signify USC's level investment in Lincoln Riley beyond Riley's own near-9-figure contract. USC will be heavy favorites in its first four and last two games. Going 4-2 in the middle stretch -- Oregon, Washington, at Penn State, at Wisconsin, Ohio State, at Indiana -- certainly won't be easy, but it'll be necessary for this season to be successful.
Not a Back Breaker, but Still Disappointing
(16) SMU -- Rhett Lashlee's team is 31-10 over the past three seasons, but is still in search of its We've Arrived moment. With a schedule that does not include Miami but does send the Mustangs to South Bend, SMU has an opportunity to play its way to the ACC title game, where they'll either win their way in or position themselves for an at-large berth at 12-1 or 11-2.
(17) Louisville -- Similar logic to SMU. Jeff Brohm (28-12 through three seasons at his alma mater) starts the year in the AP Top 25, misses Miami in the regular season and has a marquee non-conference opportunity against No. 9 Ole Miss to open the season. And the Cardinals get SMU at home.
(18) Utah -- Fair or not, when you essentially allow future Hall of Famer Kyle Whittingham to walk, you expect Morgan Scalley to skip past the typical rookie head coach growing pains. Quarterback Devon Dampier has two years of starting experience. Utah misses Texas Tech, but the Utes' schedule from Oct. 24 to Nov. 21 -- Houston, at Cincinnati, BYU, at Arizona, at TCU -- is in the sweet spot where Utah may not get the credit it deserves for going 5-0, but tricky enough that the Utes will probably trip up at least once in there.
That's 18 teams for 11 spots (remember, the Group of 6 is guaranteed one). Let the 3-month game of musical chairs begin.