I'm not sure how he does it, but I'm glad he does
For instance, I'm not sure how one calculates the returning production of Aaron Philo -- who's new to Florida and new to playing after throwing 102 passes across two seasons at Georgia Tech -- but can help teach his new Gator teammates Buster Faulkner's offense after two years in the system vs. a Sam Leavitt, who's thrown 612 career passes but is learning Lane Kiffin's offense alongside the rest of his new LSU teammates.
Regardless, ESPN's Bill Connelly is on that wall for the rest of us, and we're grateful for it.
Connelly dropped his returning production rankings for the 2026 season, and we have plenty of thoughts.
-- Mandatory caveat: Returning production guarantees you nothing, but you'd still rather have it than not. Case in point: Clemson finished No. 14 in 2024, returned 81 percent of its production into 2025, began that season ranked fourth... and fell out of the rankings by Sept. 14 and never returned. Bringing production back is one thing, but you need to return good players and you need to make them better.
On the flip side, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma all ranked in the top 10 heading into 2025, and all three vaulted into the CFP. No. 8 Vanderbilt came close. Jerry Mack flipped Kennesaw State from 2-10 to 10-4 and C-USA champs in Year 1 because his Owls ranked No. 5 this time a year ago.
-- Notre Dame is not "this year's Clemson" in that the Irish: A) return 72 percent of their production, a relative mile away from the 81 percent Clemson brought back last year, and B) despite missing the CFP, were a better team in 2025 than the 2024 Tigers. The Fighting Irish opened by losing to CFP finalist by three on the road, lost to CFP participant Texas A&M by one at the buzzer, and won every other game by at least 10 points. The Irish now return more production than anyone in the country, bring back CJ Carr (No. 6 in QB rating a year ago), and the schedule -- with no A&M and no USC -- appears easier than 2025.
With Ryan Day going off the board in 2024 and Curt Cignetti jumping the line last season, the list of coaches closest to winning their first title for the last couple years has been Marcus Freeman, Dan Lanning, and Steve Sarkisian in some order. Add in the fact that Notre Dame shares the national lead with Texas Tech in preseason win totals, and the title appears to be Notre Dame's to lose entering the season.
-- That's not to say Lanning and Sark will rebuild this fall. Not at all. Both bring back veteran QBs who could battle for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft over the next 13 months, and both rank near the top 10 in returning production. Texas is sixth at 68 percent (the offense ranks fourth), and Oregon is 11th at 66 percent.
Other teams with national title aspirations in the top 20: Georgia (No. 8), Texas Tech (No. 12), USC (No. 13), Texas A&M (No. 14), Oklahoma (No. 16) and Michigan (No. 20).
-- New coaching staffs primed for big debuts: Virginia Tech (No. 4), UCLA (No. 9) and Florida (10).
-- Returning head coaches out of excuses in 2026: Nebraska (No. 3) and South Carolina (No. 5).
-- Is Ohio State capable of a rebuilding year in today's climate? This may be the closest we'll see, as the Buckeyes come in at No. 31, weighed down by a defense that ranks 78th in returning production. Yes, the other side of the ball returns the game's most talented overall player. A 9-3 season would be a sign of the apocalypse in Columbus.
-- For the record, Indiana ranks 52nd in returning production, at 56 percent. The offense ranks 69th at 54 percent, with the defense 39th at 58 percent. Last year's national champions ranked 44th, for the record. In most cases, Indiana has exchanged its departing players with transfers who were higher-rated coming out of high school than the guys they're replacing. Needless to say, the Hoosiers will be among the most fascinating teams in 2026.
-- As you've no doubt noticed, returning production is where the transfer economy is starkly evident. Experience flows in only one direction. Case in point: Florida Atlantic is the only Group of 6 team to rank among the top 20, while Vanderbilt is the least-experienced Power 4 team, at No. 106. That means nearly half the Group of 6 is less experienced than the least-experienced Power 4 team.
What jumped out to you?