Though the previous deadline of Dec. 1 came and went a long time ago, it still feels distinctly possible that the Football Bowl Subdivision will have four postseason formats in four seasons. The College Football Playoff moved from four teams to 12 after 2023, made (necessary) changes in the 12-team bracket from 2024 to '25, and could still move to 16 in time for 2026.
ESPN's Heather Dinich -- by far the closest reporter to the CFP -- put out a report Sunday evening on the most pressing matters. Here are the need-to-know updates:
Key dates: The CFP Board of Managers and the CFP Management Committee -- two different groups, 22 human beings in all, a commissioner and a president from all 10 FBS conferences, plus the Notre Dame president and AD -- will meet in Miami on Sunday, Jan. 18 ahead of the following day's title game. The deadline to change the 2026 format was extended from Dec. 1 to Jan. 23. It feels highly unlikely ESPN would offer a second extension.
The debate: The key conversation piece will be whether to expand to 16 teams or to 24. Whereas changes under the original contract (2014-23) were required to be unanimous, now, the scepter of power is shared by the SEC and the Big Ten. The two super-conferences hold the majority of the power, but neither has enough sway to push through a format change without support from the other.
What does the SEC want? The SEC is on record with preferring a 16-team bracket with five automatic bids and 11 at-larges. This is the current format, just bigger and, in the SEC's mind, filled with more SEC teams. (Don't mention the league's 3-8 record against non-SEC teams since 2023.)
What does the Big Ten want? The Big Ten is still pushing its insane 24-team bracket, but has seemingly eased up on awarding slots ahead of time through an unequal number of automatic bids. Big Ten support for 16 hinges on a commitment to move to 24 two to three years down the road. Dinich writes, "(t)he Big Ten's perspective, according to sources, is that three years with 16 teams would give conference commissioners time to eliminate their conference championship games and restructure the postseason to accommodate play-in games or whatever path to the playoff they might favor."
In Tony Petitti's ideal world, 5-4 Illinois -- the eighth-place finisher in the Big Ten this season -- has the same shot at winning a national title as 9-0 Indiana.
What happens if they don't agree? The format remains at 12.
What about the Group of 5? Reading between the lines, it does not seem worth the effort to vote the Group of 5 off the island. Per Dinich, there "isn't any serious momentum to require conference champions to be ranked within a certain range to qualify for the playoff -- a public talking point after No. 25 JMU entered the field. That qualifier hasn't gained support from decision-makers."
The group rightly recognizes that James Madison's controversial inclusion was due to the ACC's odd tiebreaker that left Miami out of the title game and put 7-5 Duke in. Instead, look for more uniformity on defaulting to the most-recent CFP poll to decide multi-team ties, which are a near guarantee to happen somewhere every year. This move means that the Tuesday night ranking shows are not going anywhere, sadly.
What changes would Zach Barnett make? The 12-team format has struck the balance between including all 136 teams from Miami to Seattle without watering down the regular season beyond recognition. (Just ask Notre Dame and Texas.) This thing would be darn near perfect if it started the week after the conference championship games, with quarterfinal games on campus in the third weekend in December, when the first round has taken place the past two years. This would put the semifinals back on New Year's Day.
With the NFL lengthening its season and expanding its Wild Card round, the post-Wild Card Monday night for the championship game is no longer available. This year, the earliest possible title game would be tomorrow -- Tuesday, Jan. 13 -- which still beats Jan. 19.