Some of these championship games are potential disasters for their conferences (Big Ten Championship)

Championship games exist to put their league in the most advantageous position possible and to make money, and not necessarily in that order. In a perfect world, they do both. Perhaps the league's best team earns another quality win, further positioning itself for success in the postseason. Or maybe there's an upset, and the conference's second best team boosts its standing without too much injury to the favorite. 

But, as we'll see below, that's not always the case. In fact, quite a few of these conferences are setting their teams and themselves up for failure this weekend.

Eight of the nine FBS conference are all in the same position: a division-less structure where many (most? all?) of the top teams did not play each other. The leagues used varying tiebreakers to determine their two championship game combatants, and it's fair to say every one of them should spend time this spring and summer examining the processes to crown their champions.

Below, I've ranked the nine FBS title games on a scale of how well the conference has positioned itself for success on the grander scale. As you'll see, these arrangements vary from YES to WTF. 

1. BIG TEN: No. 2 Indiana (9-0) vs. No. 1 Ohio State (9-0)
This is exactly what the Big Ten envisioned when creating its championship game. After months of chewing up on the dregs of the Big Ten, the Buckeyes and Hoosiers finally turn their attention to one another. This game won't have quite the same juice as it would have before the 12-team CFP, but Lucas Oil Stadium will be rocking and the winner will advance straight to the Rose Bowl. 10/10, no notes. Saturday is going to be a Hoosierpalooza in the capital of the Hoosier State.

2. SUN BELT: Troy (6-2) at James Madison (8-0)
As the only FBS conference still utilizing divisions, the Sun Belt guards itself against the type of car crashes we'll see below. The Dukes have a chance to win their way into the Playoff, with some help from the Duke on Saturday night. 

3. MOUNTAIN WEST: UNLV (6-2) at Boise State (6-2)
With four 6-2 teams, the Mountain West's decision to sort through the tangled web of tiebreakers with their own mini-BCS ranking comes out looking much better than their peers, which we'll discuss below. I can't tell you exactly what the Mountain West used, but I can say New Mexico was consistently fourth of four in SP+, FPI and FEI, while San Diego State was ahead of Boise or UNLV in SP+ and FEI. This is a rematch of a game Boise won 56-31 last month. 

4. AMERICAN: North Texas (7-1) at No. 24 Tulane (7-1)
On the surface, this is a dream scenario for the American (if we can get past the fact that both coaches have already taken other jobs). However, the fact that North Texas opened as a 2.5-point road favorite should be a blinking red light to the American to change its tiebreaker. Like the MW, the AAC defaults to third-party rankings to sort out its tiebreaker, but the American uses the CFP rankings. That's all well and good, except for the fact that the AP poll has North Texas at No. 20 at Tulane unranked, a hypothetical BCS standings would have the Mean Green above the Green Wave, and SP+, FEI and FPI all have North Texas ahead of Tulane by close to 20 spots. It's understandable why the AAC defaults to the CFP -- they make the biggest decisions, so why not this one? -- but it's also worth asking how much the CFP committee even discusses both of these teams. Either way, AP and coaches poll voters, the algorithms and Vegas are unanimous that the wrong team is hosting. Seems like a pretty big deal!

5. Big 12: No. 11 BYU (8-1) vs. No. 5 Texas Tech (8-1)
The Big 12 can help itself with a BYU win. The fifth-ranked Red Raiders are not dropping six spots after winning a whopping 11 games by 21-plus points, so BYU could steal a bid from somebody on Saturday. But if the goal is to win the conference's first national championship in 20 years, asking Tech to beat a team it already defeated by 22 points seems an unnecessary risk. As it is, the Red Raiders are likely in line for a bye (whether they want one or not), and are unlikely to improve too much with a win. 

6. SEC: No. 4 Georgia (7-1) vs. No. 10 Alabama (7-1)
A weird setup, where regular season champ Alabama quite possibly jumps all the way to the No. 4 seed with a second win over Georgia, or misses the field entirely if they fail to earn another victory over the Bulldogs. Georgia could be as high as No. 2 with a win, or as low as No. 6 or 7 with a loss.

7. CONFERENCE USA: Kennesaw State (7-1) at Jacksonville State (7-1)
Jax State beat Kennesaw State in Jacksonville three weeks ago. Now the Gamecocks will have to do it again to win their conference.

8. MAC: Miami of Ohio (6-2) vs. Western Michigan (7-1)
Three teams finished tied for second in the MAC: Miami, Ohio and Toledo. Miami's two losses? To Ohio and Toledo. But because Ohio and Toledo did not play each other, Miami's 0-2 record is ignored, and the next tiebreaker goes to their record against common opponents, where the RedHawks came out ahead; Miami was the only team this season to beat WMU. For what it's worth, Toledo is 30 to 40 spots ahead of Miami in SP+, FEI and FPI. 

9. ACC: Duke (6-2) vs. No. 18 Virginia (7-1) 
There's a slim possibility the ACC could get two teams in, but the more likely number appears to be zero. Six teams finished the ACC regular season with a 6-2 or better record; Duke's record against those teams was 0-2. But the Blue Devils' intra-conference strength of schedule was fractions ahead of Miami's, so the ACC's best team stays home while Duke is given the opportunity to knock the league completely out of the Playoff. An abject disaster for the ACC. 



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