There's a thought out there that none of this matters.
The 2023 Michigan-Ohio State game (or is it Ohio State-Michigan) game was essentially a national quarterfinal game, when the 11-0 Wolverines and the 11-0 Buckeyes met knowing there was only room for one of them in the 4-team Playoff. Last year's stunning upset by 6-5 Michigan over 10-1 Ohio State would've essentially ended the Buckeyes' season in any year prior to 2024. Instead, well, we know how their story ended.
This time around, Ohio State's Playoff fate is secure at 11-0. The defending national champions will be in the 12-team tournament. Some would argue Ohio State is actually better off losing on Saturday -- take your bye week on Dec. 6, avoid catastrophic injury, then roll into the Playoff on Dec. 20 rested and ready to accomplish the real mission. After all, was anyone really thinking about Michigan when Ryan Day hoisted the trophy in Atlanta two months later?
There are people out there that would make that argument. I'd invite them all to check every Ohio State fan's blood pressure at around 12:10 p.m. on Saturday and tell me these games don't matter.
Heading into college football's regular season finale, nearly everyone has something to play for. It may be a Playoff berth, or a conference title, or attaining a certain win threshold. And if a team doesn't have any of those things on the line, it may still have the opportunity to beat the guys across from them. In college football, that's still more than enough.
Below you'll find:
-- The stakes for 62 different games laid bare.
-- Twenty-one teams playing win-or-stay home games.
-- Twenty-five teams fighting for a College Football Playoff invitation, or for better positioning therein.
-- A whopping 36 teams with at least semi-realistic hopes of playing for their conference championship.
Within that, I have the following teams either playing the biggest game in school history (or, at least the biggest game in a really, really long time), or fighting for the opportunity to play in the biggest game in school history: Indiana, Kennesaw State, New Mexico, North Texas, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Virginia.
In fact, of the 136 teams in FBS, 124 are mentioned in this article, and I think none are faced with a bigger gap between victory and defeat than the Cavaliers of Virginia.
Let's dig in. (All rankings reflect Sunday's AP poll.)
TUESDAY
-- Bowling Green at UMass (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): Admittedly, this isn't the hottest start. UMass takes its 12th and final chance to avoid being the only winless team in FBS this season while Bowling Green looks to finish its season at 4-8.
-- Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): WMU has already won the Michigan MAC Trophy for the third year in a row, but Lance Taylor's team has its eyes on more. A win sends Western back to Detroit for the MAC Championship for the first time since the undefeated season of 2016. Western has only been to Detroit once since winning back-to-back divisional crowns in 1999-00.
WEDNESDAY
No games scheduled. This would be the ideal time to acquaint yourself to your loved ones. Me and mine plan to take a family trip to the theater to see Zootopia 2.
THURSDAY
-- Navy at Memphis (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Navy makes the American Championship with a win here and losses by either Tulane or North Texas; the Midshipmen have been to the league title game once, in 2016. Memphis must win out to push Ryan Silverfield's streak of 10-win seasons to three.
FRIDAY
-- No. 7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (noon ET, ABC): Let's get nuts, shall we? In quite possibly -- likely? almost certainly? -- his final game as Ole Miss's head coach, Lane Kiffin looks to complete the Rebels' best season since 1962. Kiffin could take his place alongside Johnny Vaught as the best coach in Ole Miss history with five more wins, or he could become what Rich Rodriguez was to West Virginia fans, only multiplied to a factor of ten thousand. Beyond the personal stakes -- and Lord knows, Lane has sucked up enough oxygen for one person -- Ole Miss makes its first SEC Championship with a win, plus losses by Texas A&M and Alabama. The Rebels have not won the SEC, period, since 1963; they also haven't won three straight Egg Bowls since 2002-04.
On the flip side, Mississippi State plays in the first win-or-stay home game of the weekend. Jeff Lebby has an opportunity to secure Mississippi State's most satisfying victory since the 2014 win over No. 2 Auburn that lifted the Bulldogs to No. 1 in the country back in 2014: not only does a win extend State's season, it ends the program's Egg Bowl losing streak (the Bulldogs haven't beaten Ole Miss in Starkville since 2019 -- the infamous dog pee game) and hands Ole Miss the most devastating loss in program history. If a 10-2 Rebels squad misses the CFP because Lane took another job, this is the most consequential individual loss since West Virginia's 13-9 loss to Pitt in Rich Rod's final game back in 2007.
Should be fun!
-- No. 13 Utah at Kansas (noon ET, ESPN): Utah reaches the Big 12 championship with a win, plus a BYU win, an Arizona State win, and a Texas Tech loss -- so, highly unlikely -- but Kyle Whittingham's team is very much in the mix for a CFP at-large bid. Kansas is playing in the second win-or-stay home game of the weekend; Lance Leipold is looking to avoid his second straight 5-7 season after a 9-4 season in 2023.
-- Iowa at Nebraska (noon ET, CBS): Nebraska scored a 20-7 win over Iowa in Lincoln in their debut Big Ten season of 2011, and the Huskers haven't treated their fans to a home win over the Hawkeyes since then. That's six straight wins in Lincoln for Iowa, as part of a 10-4 overall record, a 9-1 mark since 2014, and a 2-0 record against Matt Rhule.
-- Ohio at Buffalo (noon ET, ESPNU): Ohio needs a win and help to defend its MAC championship, while Buffalo plays the third win-or-stay home game of the weekend.
-- Kent State at Northern Illinois (noon ET, CBS Sports Network): A notable game in that there is nothing notable on the line between the 4-7 Golden Flashes and the 3-8 Huskies.
-- Air Force at Colorado State (3 p.m. ET, FS1): Air Force leads this series 39-22-1 and is 15-3 since 2006, but Colorado State won last year's game in the Springs. Colorado State is looking to avoid its first 10-loss season since 1988.
-- No. 4 Georgia at No. 23 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Both teams need help to reach their respective conference title games, but those hopes are set aside for some Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. Georgia makes the College Football Playoff even with a loss, and Georgia Tech needs significant help even with a win. The Jackets haven't won this game since Kirby Smart's first season -- which was 10 seasons ago, apparently -- and are 3-20 against UGA since 2001, including an ongoing 7-game losing streak. That includes last year's 44-42 eight-overtime thriller, but considering the state of Tech's defense, Georgia won't need overtime to get into the 40s.
-- San Diego State at New Mexico (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): San Diego State returns to the Mountain West Championship for the first time since 2021 with a win; Sean Lewis's team is looking to win the conference for the first time since 2016. Jason Eck's upstart Lobos are in with a win and a friendly verdict from the conference's computer formula. If UNM wins and Boise State and UNLV lose, next weekend's game will be an immediate Aztecs-Lobos game, once again in Albuquerque. New Mexico is the only original MW member to never win the conference, so a case can be made this is the biggest game in school history.
-- Temple at North Texas (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): North Texas is almost certainly in the AAC Championship with a win, where a UNT-Tulane matchup would become a CFP play-in game. The Mean Green are looking to win a league they joined in 2023, and in the hunt for their first conference title of any kind since ripping off four straight Sun Belt titles from 2001-04. And there's also a possibility this is Eric Morris's last game in Denton, too. Meanwhile, Temple is playing the fourth win-or-stay home game of the weekend; in KC Keeler's first season, the Owls look to return to the postseason for the first time since 2019.
-- Boise State at Utah State (4 p.m. ET, CBS): The Broncos are in the MW Championship with a win, which would be their ninth appearance in the game's 13-year history -- including the last two. However, no one's gone back-to-back since San Diego State did so in 2015-16, and Boise earns the opportunity to do the same with a win here.
-- No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Some supposed college football fans will tell you Indiana is better off losing this game, since a conference title game berth means "nothing" with a CFP bid clenched. We call those people losers. Indiana has never played in the Big Ten Championship and hasn't won the league since 1967. The last one before that? 1945. Furthermore, Indiana has never enjoyed a perfect regular season -- not even Arthur B. Woodford's teams that went 0-1 in 1887 and 0-0-1 in '88. Plus, a win likely secures a bye, meaning IU automatically advances a round further than they did last season. Plus, Curt Cignetti's team needs to continue cutting into its 77-43-6 deficit in the Old Oaken Bucket game; IU has not beaten Purdue in consecutive seasons since winning four straight from 2013-16.
-- No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Last year, Texas won on A&M's turf to end their rival's CFP hopes while advancing to their first SEC Championship. Now, it's A&M's turn for revenge. A&M hasn't enjoyed a perfect regular season since 1992 and hasn't won a league title since 1999, but they did win in their last trip to DKR -- a 24-17 decision back in 2010. In fact, the road team has won four straight in this once-dormant rivalry. A win over A&M is probably not enough to get Texas into the CFP for the third straight year but, on Friday night at least, a win itself would be plenty for the Longhorns.
-- No. 25 Arizona at No. 20 Arizona State (9 p.m. ET, Fox): Arizona State needs a win and a lot of help to return to the Big 12 Championship but, in spite of everything, the Devils' repeat hopes are still alive. Arizona holds a 51-45-1 edge in the Territorial Cup, but ASU is 5-2 since 2017 and romped 49-7 last year in Tucson.
SATURDAY
-- No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan (noon ET, Fox): We wrote ahead of the 2023 game that no regular-season game would ever mean more than that, and stand by it. Last year's game was proof: Ohio State lost The Game and then went on to hoist The Trophy. But that doesn't mean this year's game is devoid of meaning.
Last year, Ryan Day called the 3-game losing streak to Michigan one of the worst things his family's ever been through, and then went out and lost for a fourth time. The national title turned the temperature down quite a bit, but a loss here extends Ohio State's winless streak to the longest it's been since the Buckeyes went six straight winless years from 1988-93. Coupled with a Washington win over Oregon, a Michigan win sends the Wolverines to the Big Ten Championship for the fourth time since Ohio State's last appearance in 2019 -- and also invites the possibility of an Ohio State-Michigan B1G title game, with wins by Washington and Purdue.
Ohio State can secure a CFP bye and knock Michigan out of the Playoff with a win, but the win is more than enough on its own.
-- No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (noon ET, ESPN): A win here all but clinches a College Football Playoff berth for the Red Raiders, but it also sends Tech to the Big 12 Championship which, are you sensing a theme?, is plenty on its own. Of the six original Big 12 members still in the league, Tech is the only one to never play in the Big 12 title game -- and newcomers TCU and Arizona State have already beaten the Masked Rider to Arlington.
-- No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pitt (noon ET, ABC): Pitt advances to its second ACC Championship with a win plus a loss by SMU or Virginia, while Miami needs a win losses by SMU and Virginia. The 'Canes clearest path appears to be as an at-large, which is an odd position to be in for the conference's best team.
-- Houston at Baylor (noon ET, TNT): Houston cannot play for the Big 12 title, but Willie Fritz's team can hit 10 wins for the first time since 2021 with a win here and in their bowl game. Baylor is playing the fifth win-or-stay home game of the weekend.
-- Kentucky at Louisville (noon ET, ACC Network): Kentucky plays the sixth win-or-stay home game of the weekend, as the Wildcats look to avoid their second straight empty December following eight straight bowls from 2016-23. U of L, meanwhile, seeks to avoid the bitterest collapse in FBS, after starting 7-1 and rising to No. 15 in the AP poll, Jeff Brohm's team would finish 7-5 with a defeat. Louisville blew out UK 41-14 last year in Lexington, but the Cards have not won back-to-back Governor's Cups since taking five straight from 2011-15.
-- Clemson at South Carolina (noon ET, SEC Network): Preseason, this was No. 4 at No. 13. On Saturday, it's 6-5 Clemson at 4-7 Carolina. The Palmetto Bowl is South Carolina's bowl. Shane Beamer's team has won the last two in Clemson, but the Gamecocks haven't won in Columbia since 2013.
-- Colorado at Kansas State (noon ET, FS1): Kansas State plays the seventh win-or-stay home game of the weekend. The Wildcats have played in a bowl game for five straight seasons.
-- Iowa State at Oklahoma State (noon ET, ESPNU): This is Oklahoma State's 18th and final chance to avoid becoming the first Big 12 team since 2011-12 Kansas to book back-to-back winless seasons in conference play. The last time OSU suffered that fate was 1919-20, when the Cowboys went 0-2 and then 0-3 in the Southwest Conference.
-- Toledo at Central Michigan (noon ET, ESPN+): The winner is in the MAC Championship with a win and help, primarily from Ball State and Buffalo. Toledo would move into a tie with Northern Illinois for most MAC Championship appearances (nine), while CMU would make it for the fifth time, and first since 2019.
-- East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (noon ET, ESPN+): It would take a full-on tiebreaker miracle for ECU to get in the AAC Championship after last week's loss at UTSA, but the Pirates need to win first.
-- Ball State at Miami Ohio (noon ET, CBS Sports Network): Miami needs a win and help to return to the MAC Championship for the third straight year. The RedHawks are looking to avenge a 35-point loss to Ohio in Detroit last December.
-- UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m. ET, ESPN2): BYU clinches a spot in the Big 12 Championship with a win, and will have clinched by kickoff if Arizona upsets Arizona State. Kalani Sitake's team was a regular season co-champion last season but was left out of the title game due to tiebreakers, but this year they're hoping to leave nothing to chance. UCF plays the eighth win-or-stay home game of the weekend.
-- UTEP at Delaware (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Delaware can't get in a bowl game as a reclassifying program, but going 6-6 in their first FBS season would still be a nice feather in Ryan Carty's cap.
-- Georgia Southern at Marshall (1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): It's the ninth and 10th win-or-stay home game of the weekend, as both the Eagles and Thundering Herd need a win to extend their seasons to December.
-- Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Assuming a Kennesaw State win later in the afternoon, it's a true C-USA semifinal in Jacksonville. The Owls, Hilltoppers and Gamecocks all enter Saturday at 6-1 in league play, so WKU and Jax State will settle their side of the title game on the field. There's a chance both teams get in if Kennesaw State loses, but no one will know that at kickoff.
-- Georgia State at Old Dominion (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Ricky Rahne's team can secure its first 10-win season since 2016 with a win here and in their bowl game.
-- Arkansas State at App State (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): It's the 11th and 12th win-or-stay home games of the weekend, and the second Loser Stays Home Bowl of the day.
-- Boston College at Syracuse (3 p.m. ET, The CW): The loser finishes 17th of 17 in the ACC standings. Syracuse leads the all-time series 33-24, but BC has won the last two.
-- ULM at Louisiana (3 p.m. ET, ESPN+): It's a win-or-stay home game (No. 13) for Louisiana, as well as the 61st Battle on the Bayou. Louisiana leads 33-26 (one ULM win was vacated), and has largely dominated of late, taking two of two, six of seven, nine of 11, and 13 of 17.
-- South Alabama at Texas State (3 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Texas State plays the 14th win-or-stay home game of the weekend, looking to appear in its third bowl game in as many seasons under GJ Kinne.
-- No. 6 Oregon at Washington (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Dan Lanning's team clinched its return to the CFP with last week's win over USC, but a win here plus a Michigan win over Ohio State puts the Ducks back in Indianapolis to defend their B1G championship (with a shot at revenge over Indiana, and a possible No. 2 seed in the field). In one of the most even rivalries of late, Washington leads 5-4 over the past decade.
-- LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Can John Mateer win a fourth straight game while throwing for fewer than 175 yards? Chances are he can, and if/when he does OU is back in the Playoff for the first time since 2019. This is LSU's first trip to Norman.
-- No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): It's the 118th Tennessee-Vandy game, and the biggest. By my count it's the first time both the Dores and Vols will be ranked entering the game, with Vandy still holding faint CFP hopes. (At 6-2, Vanderbilt can finish no higher than fourth in the SEC, which is still a heckuva accomplishment.) Tennessee leads the series 79-33-5 with six straight wins (ignoring Jeremy Pruitt-era vacated wins); 18 of Vanderbilt's 33 wins came before 1927, which means Vandy has beaten Tennessee 15 times in the last century or so. A win gives Josh Heupel an opportunity at back-to-back 10-win seasons and 40 triumphs in the last four years.
-- Missouri at Arkansas (3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Arkansas has scored 378 points and allowed 375, which means a 1- or 2-point Mizzou win officially gives Arkansas the title of Best 2-10 Team in College Football History. A win here and in the bowl gives Eliah Drinkwitz 30 wins in his last three seasons and three straight AP Top 25 finishes, which hasn't happened at Mizzou since 1959-61.
-- Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1): The oldest continuous rivalry in FBS history is tied 63-63-8. Minnesota won last year in Madison, but Wisconsin won two years ago in Minneapolis. Minnesota leads 3-1 over the last four, but it's 3-3 over the last six and 4-4 over the last eight.
-- Penn State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN): It wasn't what they envisioned when they began the season at No. 2, but 5-6 Penn State has won its way back to a Loser Stays Home Bowl with 5-6 Rutgers.
-- Wake Forest at Duke (3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network): Smarter people than me say 6-5 Duke still has a path to the ACC Championship. I'll take their word for it. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has a shot at its first 10-win season since 2021 (and second since 2006) under first-year head coach Jake Dickert.
-- Army at UTSA (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): It's essentially a win-or-stay home game (No. 17) for 5-5 Army, who still has an opportunity to go bowling with a win over Navy in a couple weeks -- although I'll admit I'm not sure the logistics of a bowl game holding a spot for the Black Knights or someone else until Dec. 13 -- but who are we kidding? UTSA is unbeatable in the Alamodome.
-- Cincinnati at TCU (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox): It's not the biggest game the 2021 CFP semifinalists or 2022 CFP finalists have ever played, but the winner is 8-4 and 5-4 in Big 12 play and the loser is 7-5 and 4-5. That'll feel like a big difference in the post-game locker rooms.
-- Kennesaw State at Liberty (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): Kennesaw State advances to the Conference USA Championship with a win, or a Jacksonville State win over WKU earlier in the day. First-year coach Jerry Mack would prefer the first option.
-- Troy at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Charles Huff's Golden Eagles were cruising to a Sun Belt West title until they dropped back-to-back games to Texas State and South Alabama, allowing 41 and 42 points in those games. Now, they're in a full on SBC West championship game against Troy, where the winner gets to travel to Harrisonburg and take on James Madison next week.
-- James Madison at Coastal Carolina (3:45 p.m. ET, ESPNU): JMU has already won the Sun Belt East, but a College Football Playoff bid depends on winning out (plus lots of help from the American). The Dukes are looking to become the first Sun Belt team to go 8-0 in regular-season league play since Louisiana in 2021.
-- UCLA at No. 17 USC (4:30 p.m. ET, NBC): USC cannot win the Big Ten or make the CFP, but the Trojans can get to 10 wins if they win out. USC leads the Battle for the Victory Bell 51-34-7 and won 19-13 last year in Pasadena, but the series is 2-2 over the last four, 4-3 USC since 2018, and 7-6 USC since 2012.
-- Florida State at Florida (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): Florida State is the 18th team to play a win-or-stay home game so far, and that's the only tangible stake in this game. Billy Napier is already gone, Mike Norvell is still here. Both teams went 2-6 in their respective conferences. Best I can, tell, this is the least meaningful FSU-UF game since 1961, when Ray Graves's Gators and Bill Peterson's Seminoles both went 4-5-1. Florida leads the series 38-28-2 and has won four of the last six, including a 31-11 decision in Tallahassee last season.
-- Oregon State at Washington State (6:30 p.m. ET, The CW): Oregon State looks to win its first outright conference championship since taking the Pacific Coast Conference in 1956. So what if it's a 2-game season? Meanwhile, Washington State is the 19th team to play a win-or-stay home game so far.
-- Virginia Tech at No. 18 Virginia (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): Friends, did you know that Virginia has never won a conference championship? Sure, they went undefeated in league play and shared the SIAA title with Washington & Lee and Georgetown in 1914-15, but that caveat says it all, doesn't it? The Cavs shared ACC titles in 1989 and 1995, and won the ACC Coastal in 2019 before losing to Clemson by 45 in the title game. Tony Elliott's team advances to the ACC Championship in a wide-open league with a win in the Commonwealth Cup, a game they've won (gulp) once since 2004. The Scott Stadium crowd shots if Virginia loses this game are going to be sensational.
-- Maryland vs. Michigan State at Detroit (7 p.m. ET, FS1): This game is an example of B1G Brain. What is B1G Brain, you ask? Not exclusive to a college athletics conference, B1G Brain is the pursuit of money and exposure at the fatal peril of common sense. In this case, Michigan State is kicking the Michigan high school football state championships out of Ford Field so that the nation can see this Spartans team, 0-8 in the Big Ten, play before a half-full-at-best crowd in a game few will watch on television. Good decision, everyone. This one aged really well.
-- Rice at South Florida (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Rice is the 20th team to play a win-or-stay home game, while South Florida plays perhaps its final game under Alex Golesh.
-- No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): A win sends Alabama back to the SEC Championship for a record 16th time, ending an unfathomable 1-year drought, and to the CFP for a record ninth time. A loss is a fate worse than death: Alabama misses the CFP for a second straight year with its second straight 9-3 record, while having to hear about it from Auburn fans all year long. Auburn is the 21st and final team to play a win-or-stay home game this weekend.
-- Northwestern at Illinois (7:30 p.m. ET, Fox): Illinois leads the all-time series 58-55-5 (that's a lot of fives) and has won three of the last four, including a 38-28 win in Evanston last November. Northwestern, however, is 9-4 since 2012.
-- Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): A win sends Tulane to the American Championship for the fourth year in a row, continuing the longest active streak in college football. Two more wins send Tulane to the CFP. A loss possibly ends the Jon Sumrall era, as soon as within 24 hours of the game.
-- North Carolina at NC State (7:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network): This could have been a Loser Stays Home Bowl, but UNC lost to Duke and NC State beat Florida State, so the Heels are done at 4-7 and the Wolfpack have advanced at 6-5. UNC leads the all-time series 68-40-6, but NC State has won four in a row, and a win ties the program record for longest win streak over those baby blue bastards from Chapel Hill.
-- No. 21 SMU at Cal (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2): A win advances SMU to the ACC Championship for the second straight year, and to a conference title game for the third consecutive season. Going to Berkeley, Calif., to clinch a berth in the Atlantic Coast Conference's championship game makes total sense.
-- UNLV at Nevada (9 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): UNLV will know its Mountain West title fate by kickoff; the Rebels need San Diego State to beat New Mexico and Utah State to beat Boise State to reach the MW Championship for the third year in a row. Nevada leads the Battle for the Fremont Cannon 28-22, but UNLV has won the last three.
-- No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): The entire nation will be wearing cardinal after dark on Saturday, as Notre Dame clinches a CFP berth with a win, whether they've earned it or not.
-- Fresno State at San Jose State (10:30 p.m. ET, FS1): In the 88th Battle of the Valley, Fresno State seeks to grow its 45-39-3 lead. Fresno won 33-10 last year and is 22-7 since 1991, but the Spartans are an even 6-6 since 2011.