It's been widely asked aloud if conference championships still mean anything in an era of (literal) coast-to-coast, division-less alignments and an expanded College Football Playoff. When your best teams hardly play each other and all involved would fast forward through Championship Saturday to Selection Sunday, who really cares about their conference title? I'm not here to say that today's alignment in FBS is perfect (it's absolutely not), but I would like to caution us all that before we throw the baby out with the bathwater, maybe we should consult the baby first.
Only one team will win the national championship, but 132 of 136 teams entered this season with a goal of winning their conference. Furthermore, it's quite likely that winning a conference championship will be incredibly meaningful for the players and coaches who hoist their respective trophies three weekends from now. Consider the following:
-- East Carolina, Navy and North Texas have never won the American.
-- Virginia has never won an outright ACC title.
-- Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Houston have never won the Big 12. In fact, Tech's last outright conference title came in 1955, when they won something called the Border Conference.
-- Indiana has won one outright Big Ten championship, in 1945.
-- Kennesaw State can win Conference USA in their second year in the league.
-- Texas A&M has never won the SEC.
-- The Sun Belt will almost certainly crown a first-time champion.
Of course, one can argue that that other than Virginia, Indiana, and Texas Tech, these title droughts exist largely because of all the movement we've seen among schools and conferences in the past 15 years, but the players and coaches don't care.
AMERICAN
Navy -- 8-2 (6-1)
East Carolina -- 7-3 (5-1)
North Texas -- 9-1 (5-1)
Tulane -- 8-2 (5-1)
The American is the quickest of the conferences to outsource its tiebreaking procedures. In the event of a multi-team tie with no round-robin, the first tiebreaker is the College Football Playoff rankings. If no one in the conference appears there, the American then goes to a composite of computer rankings, including Bill Connelly's SP+, ESPN's Strength of Record, and others. This would seemingly favor North Texas and East Carolina, who outrank the other two in SP+ and SOR.
ACC
Georgia Tech -- 9-1 (6-1)
Virginia -- 9-2 (6-1)
Pitt -- 7-3 (5-1)
SMU -- 7-3 (5-1)
Pitt didn't help itself get an at-large bid on Saturday, and it also needs help to reach the ACC Championship. Even against an upcoming schedule of Georgia Tech and Miami, the Panthers still need Louisville to beat SMU on Saturday. Why? Pitt lost to U of L back in September, while Virginia beat them the following week and SMU hosts the Cardinals on Saturday. Georgia Tech did not play Louisville, so a 3-way tie between the Jackets, Cavaliers and Mustangs would be determined by their common opponent: Wake Forest, who lost to Georgia Tech but defeated UVA and SMU. In a 2-way tie between Virginia and SMU, Virginia seemingly has the edge in conference opponent winning percentage, but it's a slight one.
BIG 12
Texas Tech -- 10-1 (7-1)
BYU -- 9-1 (6-1)
Utah -- 8-2 (5-2)
Houston -- 8-2 (5-2)
Arizona State -- 7-3 (5-2)
Cincinnati -- 7-3 (5-2)
Texas Tech is off this weekend, but the Red Raiders can clinch their first Big 12 Championship appearance with a Colorado win over Arizona State on Saturday. If (when) that does not happen, they can do so with a win at West Virginia on Nov. 29. However, even though Joey McGuire's team is clearly the best in the conference and exceedingly likely to make the championship game no matter what happens on Nov. 29, they would not come out ahead in every single multi-team tie in the event they lose in Morgantown. If Tech and/or BYU slip up down the stretch, defending champ Arizona State is the team among the 5-2 bunch most likely to slide their way to Arlington.
BIG TEN
Indiana -- 11-0 (8-0)
Ohio State -- 10-0 (7-0)
Oregon -- 9-1 (6-1)
USC -- 8-2 (6-1)
Michigan -- 8-2 (6-1)
Like Texas Tech, Indiana can clinch a long-awaited championship game berth on its off week, so long as Oregon takes care of USC in Autzen Stadium. Michigan's path to the title game not only requires beating Ohio State for a fifth straight time, it also requires a USC win over Oregon and a Purdue win over Indiana.
Most likely title game: Ohio State vs. Indiana
Wackiest possible title game: Michigan vs. USC
C-USA
Jacksonville State -- 7-3 (6-0)
Western Kentucky -- 8-2 (6-1)
Kennesaw State -- 7-3 (5-1)
Missouri State -- 7-3 (5-1)
Missouri State's ineligibility for the C-USA title game simplifies things quite a bit. Jacksonville State hosts Western Kentucky on Nov. 29, and they'll do it again the following week if they win and Kennesaw State loses to Missouri State or Liberty. Jax State can clinch at least clinch the opportunity to defend their league title with a win at FIU on Saturday. It's possible WKU can win on Jacksonville State's home field and still miss the title game -- if JSU, WKU and KSU all finish 7-1, the tiebreaker would revert to the same BCS-lite computer formula as the American. The Hilltoppers are currently third among the three in FPI, but first in SP+.
MAC
Western Michigan -- 6-4 (5-1)
Central Michigan -- 6-4 (4-2)
Ohio -- 6-4 (4-2)
Toledo -- 6-4 (4-2)
Buffalo -- 5-5 (4-2)
Miami (Ohio) -- 5-5 (4-2)
That's a lot of 4-2 teams. WMU lost to Miami last month, but owns wins over Ohio, CMU and Toledo (by eight points combined). The Broncos close with Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan, who are a combined 5-8 in league play. There are frankly too many permutations to explain all of them here, but my favorite detail is that the MAC Championship would be Miami vs. WMU if the Broncos beat NIU but lose to EMU, and Toledo vs. Miami if Western loses to NIU and beats EMU and chalk plays out elsewhere.
MOUNTAIN WEST
San Diego State -- 8-2 (5-1)
Fresno State -- 7-3 (4-2)
Boise State -- 6-4 (4-2)
New Mexico -- 7-3 (4-2)
UNLV -- 8-2 (4-2)
Hawaii -- 7-3 (4-2)
We're into BCS land pretty quickly here, where Boise State, San Diego State and UNLV are out ahead of the pack. Long story short, the rest of the conference needs to root against Boise State.
SEC
Texas A&M -- 10-0 (7-0)
Georgia -- 9-1 (7-1)
Ole Miss -- 10-1 (6-1)
Alabama -- 8-2 (6-1)
Despite Texas A&M's 7-0 record and Georgia being in the clubhouse at 7-1, no one can clinch an SEC Championship berth until next weekend. Why? This is the SEC schedule on Saturday:
Oddly, no one is less concerned with their conference standings than the SEC, where most teams are more concerned with Playoff positioning and most coaches would go ahead and take their bye on Dec. 6 and play on Dec. 20 if you offered them the choice right now. This gets real simple if A&M beats Texas and Bama wins the Iron Bowl -- it's Aggies vs. Tide in Atlanta. If Auburn wins the Iron Bowl, Georgia earns the chance to defend its SEC title. Ole Miss needs Texas and Auburn victories to reach its first SEC Championship.
SUN BELT (WEST)
Southern Miss -- 7-3 (5-1)
Arkansas State -- 5-5 (4-2)
Troy -- 6-4 (4-2)
At last, we get to the one FBS conference still operating under the sanity of divisions. James Madison has clinched the Sun Belt East, and Southern Miss can win the West with a win over South Alabama on Saturday plus a Troy loss to Georgia State. Troy can force a de facto Sun Belt West championship game but if USM loses to South Alabama, Troy would lose a tiebreaker to Arkansas State in the event those are the West's only 6-2 teams. So, Troy needs to root for Southern Miss this weekend.