Before we dive in, if you want to change the names here from Vanderbilt and Missouri to Alabama and Georgia, please go right ahead. If your brain needs to put a crimson or red coating around these black-and-gold teams to make this all easier to swallow, I get it. No hard feelings.
But in a year where 11 SEC teams are currently ranked in the AP Top 25, the race to Atlanta is as wide open as ever. And in a wide-open year, it's worth considering whether Vanderbilt or Missouri can win this conference.
Let's start here. Only six FBS teams rank in the top 37 nationally in the four major statistical categories: passing efficiency, rushing offense, pass efficiency defense, and rushing defense. They are: Florida State, Missouri, Utah, Texas Tech, Utah, Vanderbilt, and Washington. Among those six, Florida State and Washington have only played two games, and Texas Tech has yet to play a single Power 4 opponent. Utah's only P4 opponent thus far is UCLA; we all know the story there.
Now let's go one level deeper. Here are how the Tigers and Commodores rank in Brian Fremau's various advanced metrics, with their SEC ranks in parenthesis:
Net Points Per Possession
Vanderbilt: 11th (2nd)
Missouri: 13th (4th)
Net Available Yards
Missouri: 5th (1st)
Vanderbilt: 14th (3rd)
Net Yards Per Play
Vanderbilt: 7th (2nd)
Missouri: 14th (4th)
Again, change those names to Alabama and Georgia, and nothing at all would seem unusual.
Neither team has played a murder's row of opponents thus far, but Vanderbilt has been dominant against their slate thus far. After trailing 20-10 at the half at Virginia Tech (again, not a good team), Vandy is on 65-7 run over six quarters against the Hokies and No. 11 South Carolina -- both on the road.
3-0 Teams with two wins over P4 opponents
Georgia Tech
Iowa State
LSU
NC State
Ole Miss
Oregon
Tulane
Vanderbilt
3-0 Teams with two 20+ point wins over P4 opponents
Oregon
Vanderbilt
Mizzou doesn't have those skins on the wall -- though let's not overlook the degree of difficulty in beating Kansas 42-31 a couple weeks ago -- but Eli Drinkwitz's team does have a neat party trick: they can run the ball as well as anyone in college football.
The Tigers are fifth nationally with 302.3 yards per game, while averaging 6.17 a carry. The only team in FBS to run the ball more often for a higher per-carry average than Mizzou thus far is Navy. The ground game is powered by Ahmad Hardy, a ULM transfer and arguably one of the most impactful imports in the entire sport. Mizzou running backs coach Curtis Luper, a developer of seven NFL players, told me Hardy might be the best running back he's ever coached. Three games in, Hardy is second in the nation at 154 yards per game, and his 8.11 per-carry average is first among all players with at least 50 carries thus far. Backup Jamal Roberts has added 222 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries.
Buoyed by that rushing attack, Mizzou quarterback Beau Pribula is 19th in the country in passing efficiency, hitting 76.4 percent of his 89 throws for 8.9 an attempt with seven touchdowns against one pick.
But if all that doesn't convince you, both teams have an ace in the hole: the schedule.
No one has an SEC slate that can be described as "easy," but some are certainly more difficult than others. Oklahoma's only unranked SEC opponent is their Oct. 18 visit to South Carolina. Auburn's next four opponents are No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 10 Texas A&M (both on the road), No. 5 Georgia, and then No. 23 Mizzou.
Neither the Tigers nor the 'Dores have to play Georgia, so that's a start. Missouri gets No. 14 Alabama at home, and No. 22 Auburn on the tail end of their 4-game gauntlet. They get No. 10 Texas A&M at home after an off week. All things considered, Mizzou's toughest stretch appears to be their Nov. 22 trip to OU, followed by another road game at Arkansas.
Vanderbilt has to visit Alabama -- all five of Kalen DeBoer's five losses thus far have come away from home, and Vandy hasn't won at Bryant-Denny since 1984 -- but the 'Dores get No. 3 LSU after an off week, and their trip to No. 8 Texas comes after the Longhorns will have played four consecutive weeks away from Austin. The 'Horns may be the walking wounded by then. Vandy concludes its regular season at Knoxville.
No one's saying either team will run their respective gauntlets unscathed but, outside of Georgia, I wouldn't bet on any SEC team without a blemish or two. The path to Atlanta may require favor from the Tiebreaker Gods, but that's true of anyone in the SEC.
Honestly, one of the biggest arguments about Vandy or Mizzou as SEC title contenders? They have to play each other.