As he begins what feels like the third or fourth "If not now, when?" season of his 12-year tenure at Penn State, we must first consider the consequences on what will happen to James Franklin if his Nittany Lions fail to deliver a Big Ten and/or national championship this winter. If Penn State goes 10-2 this regular season and loses in the CFP quarterfinals, are they going to fire him? Electrocute him? Coordinate a campaign to convince the family their house is haunted so they'll pack up and move? Not likely.
Barring the completely unforeseen, Franklin will be back for a 13th season in 2026, trophies or no trophies. And yet.
Penn State will likely begin the season ranked no lower than No. 3 in the AP poll. While that will be the fifth time (and third consecutive) in the Franklin era, it will also be the Lions' highest start since 1999. They return a starting quarterback that has all the tools to be the No. 1 pick in the draft. They were in the Big Ten Championship last season, and had a lead in the final five minutes of a CFP semifinal game last season. Truly, if not now, when?
After defensive coordinator Tom Allen took a lateral move to be closer to family, Franklin made a hire that was equal parts obvious and curious.
First, the obvious. The last game Knowles coached ended with a confetti drop and a trophy lifting. In a zero-sum world of talent acquisition, hiring Knowles made Penn State stronger and Ohio State weaker. (Personality conflicts and sour grapes aside, Ohio State would've preferred to bring Knowles back over Matt Patricia, all things equal. They did offer him $2.5 million a year, after all.) Knowles put Duke among the top 40 nationally before he left, Oklahoma State in the top 10, and Ohio State to first in yards per play and points per game before leaving for more money elsewhere. That undeniable track record of improvement is worth $9.3 million over the life of a 3-year contract.
Though we've now got a decade worth of proof spread across three schools that Knowles will eventually produce an elite unit, we also have data that Knowles's defenses tend to take one step backward before they take three giant leaps forward.
At Duke, Knowles inherited a unit that allowed 28.3 points per game; in his 2010 debut season, the Blue Devils yielded 35.4 points a game.
At Oklahoma State, Knowles took a defense that surrendered 29.4 points a game and ranked a respectable 56th nationally in yards per play; in 2018, he coached them up to allow 32.5 points a game and rank 99th in yards pe rplay.
At Ohio State, the Buckeyes' numbers didn't immediately get worse; Knowles chopped their scoring average from 22.8 to an even 21 a game, and their yards per play from 5.33 to 5.18. A year later, Ohio State cut a full yard off its down-to-down average, but it took a year to get there. Every coordinator has a minimum number of practice hours, film clips and game reps for his scheme to click into place. Knowles's number is higher than most.
The obvious counterpoint: 2010 Duke and 2018 Oklahoma State are not 2025 Penn State. The Nittany Lions have ranked in the top 10 nationally in yards per play for four seasons running, including a sixth-place finish last year. They return All-America candidate Dani Dennis-Sutton on the edge. The wheel does not need to be re-invented in State College.
All that written, Knowles has his system, and he's not going to dumb it down out of fear for screwing up a good thing. And he's not running from the expectations around Penn State, either.
“I think in today’s game of football it needs to be somewhat complicated,” Knowles said recently, via the Altoona Mirror. “You need to have answers for everything, particularly at this level. Offenses don’t run the same things in college. In the NFL, they do. You better have all different kinds of answers," Knowles said Our job is to be great now. If it’s too complicated or I can’t get it installed where the players pick it up quickly, that’s my fault. I think I’ve developed a process that moves it along at a more rapid pace.”
Knowles hasn't just had to teach his scheme to the players, the entire staff is new (to him) as well. The staff part of the equation probably isn't a big deal; Allen was only at Penn State for one year. Prior to him, Manny Diaz spent two years on staff before getting the Duke job. Cornerbacks coach Terry Smith has been with Franklin throughout his tenure, which means Knowles is the fourth coordinator he's worked with. “Every single one of them has had a top-10 defense at Penn State," Franklin said. "I feel like that was attractive to Jim. But I think it was also attractive to Jim that when he watched our tape there’s some similarities to what he believes.”
Early into camp, Knowles said the install is on schedule. He even said the pieces are clicking into place without practice or game reps, which is either encouraging or frightening. “I think we’re in a good spot,” Knowles said. “They’ve shown that they’ve responded to the installation without getting the reps.”
Either way, Penn State has three de facto preseason games (Nevada, FIU, Villanova) before Oregon comes to Beaver Stadium on Sept. 27. Penn State won't have to win that game to win a national championship, but they're going to have to beat an equally- or superiorly-talented team to win a national championship. Two or three of them, in fact. Knowles's past results indicate Penn State will have an elite-of-the-elite defense... in 2026 or '27. Can he speed up his timeline to meet Penn State's championship expectations?