We're one week away from the bracket that will finally matter. Somewhere along the line we transitioned from the portion of the season where favorites added wins to improve their resumes and crossed into the time where it's all about simply not screwing up. Chances are one or two of them will fail this week.
In advance of Tuesday's penultimate bracket reveal, here's how each of us see things stacking up.
SCOTT (@FootballScoop)
No. 1:
No. 2:
No.3:
No.4:
Last two out: and
ZACH (@Zach_Barnett)
No. 1: Alabama's secondary looks ripe for the picking for the second straight week, but the Tide has demonstrated they can win a 14-13 rock fight and a 55-44 shootout. If I'm an opponent, I'm not sure which frightens me more.
No. 2: The Ducks blew away Oregon, but we all knew that was going to happen. What we didn't see coming? Oregon getting a chance to erase its only setback of the season. But considering Arizona played the Ducks earlier this season and last November, I wouldn't be surprised to see that blue and red "A" on this list six days from now.
No. 3: Yes, head-to-head counts. But at some point the value of simply looking like a superior team weighs in as well. I was a little worried that Baylor didn't blow away Oklahoma State last week, and more than worried that Texas Tech was a two-point play away from potentially sending the Bears to overtime. And yes, I'm aware of Baylor's comparative score edge against Oklahoma and Kansas. And has anyone mentioned head-to-head? Let's just move on before I flip-flop again.
No. 4: Back to that whole looking like a superior team, Florida State was barely superior to Florida, one week after they were barely superior to Boston College, and Miami the week before that, and so on. Not losing will keep Florida State on this list, but barely winning against average teams won't place them any higher.
Last two out: and
Baylor and Ohio State have to feel great about where they'll be if they win Saturday, and less than great about their chances of actually winning on Saturday.
DOUG (@CoachSamz)
No. 1: Oregon get a rematch with Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, and one of the more interesting conference championships match ups of any Power 5 conference. If they win, I put them at #1 because of their quality (and rather convincing) wins over Michigan State and UCLA, which both came by double digits.
No. 2: Alabama handled their business against Auburn, and seemed to look better and better as the week went on. If I had to give a vote of confidence for any of my top three teams heading into their conference championship games, the Tide would get my highest vote. I don't see them having any problem with Missouri.
No. 3: Another week in the books, and another average performance from Florida State last weekend. They better bring their A-game against Georgia Tech because the Yellow Jackets are playing really well. A loss might knock them out of the top four, making room for TCU, Baylor, Ohio State or another outsider. Anything can happen with a committee of humans.
No. 4: A lot of people are going to have TCU in this slot, but when I take into account close games, I see Baylor's two-point win over Texas Tech on Sunday in a much more favorable light than TCU's escape of Kansas. Call it style points, or game control, or whatever you want...that matters to me.
Last two out: and and
A slip up from any of my top three teams means it's the Big 12 and NOT the big and bad SEC getting two teams in the playoff. TCU is almost interchangeable for that #4 spot with Baylor at this point and they may really benefit from not having a Big 12 title game this season.
Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech, the same Hokie team that ended regulation against Wake Forest tied 0-0, is still ugly, and they lost phenom JT Barrett with an ankle injury, but I personally don't believe that you punish an entire team's body of work because of one player's bad luck.Tom Herman will have the offense humming along regardless.