In Texas A&M's 26-20 loss to No. 11 Alabama, a critical moment came at the 2:59 mark of the third quarter.
With the game tied at 17, Texas A&M faced a 4th-and-1 from the Crimson Tide 45-yard line. Jimbo Fisher opted to punt, and Alabama marched 80 yards in six plays to take a lead it would not relinquish.
After A&M's 26-20 loss, Fisher was asked about the decision.
"If it wasn't a full yard, inside of a yard, I probably would have went (for it). So I said let's, listen, we can pin 'em back, our punter does a great job -- unfortunately that's the one he kicked just a little bit long," he said. "But it was a tie game. I felt our defense had played great the whole time and I thought we'd get the ball back and play. We'd gotten stopped earlier on two third-and-ones."
Texas A&M has attempted five fourth downs through six games; only six FBS teams have attempted fewer through the same amount of games. The Aggies attempted 11 fourth downs in 12 games a year ago, the third fewest in the nation. They were dead last in 2021, with 10 attempts in 12 games. They were also dead last in 2018. Jimbo Fisher was also dead last at Florida State in 2013, 2014 and 2016.
In 13 and a half seasons as a head coach, Fisher has never ranked higher than 110th in fourth down attempts.
Fisher is an extremely risk-averse coach on fourth down, to the point where he's reckless in his caution. That's just who he is. So, asking why he didn't go for a critical fourth down isn't the right question.
I want to hear Jimbo explain exactly how many inches away the nose of the football would have to be from the first down marker in order for him to go for it, and why.
A yard is 36 inches. Surely, 30 would be too far. What about 24? If 24 is close enough and 30 is too far, what about 27? 28? Where, exactly, is the line, and why is it 27 and not 30?
The reality is there probably isn't a well thought out, hard-and-fast answer. Jimbo coaches with his gut -- "We'd gotten stopped earlier on two third-and-ones" -- and his gut remains in Safe Mode almost all the time. Fisher did attempted one fourth down against Alabama, a 4th-and-1 pass from Max to Jake Johnson that fell incomplete on the Aggies' first drive of the game.
The official box score lists that play as a 4th-and-1, but we know now it had to actually be a 4th-and-less-than-1.