It was a muddy week here at Winning Box Scores HQ.
Two of our most reliable indicators for eventual victory -- winning the rushing battle and winning turnovers -- hit season-lows, each coming in close to 10 percent below their season averages. Five of 59 teams were out-rushed and out-passed and won the game anyway. Only 17 of the 59 victors won both categories.
All of this makes sense, of course. We're into the thick of conference season now, where the relative talent gap is smaller, familiarity is higher, and attrition looms larger. More and more games are going to be won on the margins.
And all of that makes Indiana's ongoing dominance even more impressive.
Curt Cignetti's team thoroughly dominated a definitely-not-great-but-certainly-good Nebraska team from stem to stern on Saturday afternoon. The Hoosiers scored on four of their six first-half possessions, then scored again on four of their first five second-half possessions.
In total, Indiana out-rushed Nebraska 215-70 (6.5-2.4 per), out-passed them 280-234 (9.3-5.1), scored first, led 28-7 at halftime, and won turnovers 5-1, making them one of seven FBS teams to pull off a Quinfecta in Week 8.
Dominating every phase of the box score is nothing new for this Indiana team. Par for the course, really. In seven games to date -- 35 total categories, at five per game -- Indiana has lost one. The Hoosiers committed four turnovers while forcing Maryland into zero, in a game they still won 42-28. Turnovers were a stalemate in IU's 41-24 win over Northwestern; neither team forced one. Overall, though, Indiana is 33-of-35 in the five statistics we track here. The next first-quarter point Indiana allows this season will be its first.
Now, has the schedule Indiana played thus far has not been impressive. But let's compare 2024 Indiana's first seven contests with a certain recent historical comp.
Let's look at yardage now.
So, 2023 Michigan out-scored its first seven foes by 229 points and out-gained them by 1,264 yards. 2024 Indiana at the same point is up 245 points and 1,751 yards. Sure, there are differences of styles of play and schedule of difficulty with a heavy influence on those numbers (and I think 2023 Michigan's slate, easy as it was, is still slightly more difficult than what Indiana has faced so far). I'm certainly not predicting Indiana to put 13 players in the NFL draft.
But I'm certain that if you changed nothing else about this Indiana team except to put them in winged helmets, they'd be ranked no worse than second in the country.
Week 8 numbers:
-- Rush for more yards: 41-18 (.694)
-- Pass for more yards: 31-28 (.525)
-- Score first: 42-17 (.712)
-- Lead at halftime: 47-10 (.825)
-- Win turnovers: 28-15 (.651)
-- Win all five: 7-0 (1.000)
Year to date:
-- Rush for more yards: 405-112 (.783)
-- Pass for more yards: 329-190 (.634)
-- Score first: 376-143 (.724)
-- Lead at halftime: 415-76 (.845)
-- Win turnovers: 298-90 (.768)
-- Win all five: 106-2 (.981)
Additional notes:
-- We've waited all season for Auburn to iron things out once they got their turnover issues fixed. The blue-and-orange Tigers won turnovers 2-1, but still watched a 17-6 fourth quarter lead wilt into a 21-17 loss.
-- Cal is 0-4 in ACC play with losses of 14-9, 39-38, 17-15, and 24-23. What's worse, the Golden Bears have been a neutral or positive in turnover margin in each defeat.