There are 138 FBS teams competing for 12 College Football Playoff spots, and those 138 can be broken into three tiers.
The third tier is by far the largest: these teams are below the bubble and have weeks, perhaps months, of winning to do before they can be taken seriously as Playoff contenders. The first tier is the smallest: Like Ohio State and Texas last week and LSU-Ole Miss this week, these teams would have to lose once, perhaps even twice, more before they're on the CFP cut line.
And then there's Tier 2. Like Memphis and Boise State last week, these are teams whose Playoff fates could very well turn on a play call, a missed block, a bouncing ball in real time on Saturday. This is the magic of the 12-team Playoff, which balances the see-saw between inclusivity (nearly everyone has at least a somewhat realistic path) and exclusivity (even the preseason No. 1 team can play their way out). That's what we'll focus on here.
I count six games where both sides can play their way into, or out of, contention.
1. No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): It's kind of odd considering they've only played in the game once and never won it, but at this point we have to concede Miami as the clear ACC favorite. And if the Canes are one half of the ACC Championship, there's a good chance the winner of this one is the other. Louisville in particular is under the gun here after the close-but-no-cigar loss to No. 9 Ole Miss two weeks ago. Only four teams in the preseason AP Top 25 have dropped a game thus far: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Oregon, No. 10 Oklahoma, and No. 24 Louisville. U of L could be the first to two. Jeff Brohm's team is a slight favorite here and will be a moderate-to-heavy favorite from here on out, but that's a double-edged sword: Louisville likely won't play another ranked opponent after Saturday.
SMU was incredibly sloppy in its Labor Day win at Florida State, which could be a good or bad thing for there chances here. Play a clean game and you probably win. An equally unfocused performance on Saturday is likely a blowout loss. Kevin Jennings (SMU) and Lincoln Kienholz (Louisville) enter Saturday ranked first and fourth nationally in yards per attempt. First to 40 wins.
2. No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech (8 p.m. ET Friday, Fox): Last year, Texas Tech went to Space City and hammered Houston in a 24-point margin that wasn't as close as the final score. Houston gained 12 first downs, went 1-of-12 on third down, and turned it over three times. That was last year. It's too early to say Texas Tech's defense has fallen below its lofty preseason expectations, but it's not too early to say the Red Raiders miss the playmaking of Jacob Rodriguez, David Bailey, and the four other defenders now in the NFL.
Offensively, it's safe to say quarterback Will Hammond is still figuring things out.
All that to say, if Tech is gettable this season, this might be the most getable they'll be. Friday is easily Houston's biggest game since re-joining a power conference in 2024, and perhaps Texas Tech's one and only opportunity to beat a ranked opponent all season. It's definitely remote, but there's an avenue for Texas Tech to miss the Playoff at 11-1 if this is the "-1."
3. James Madison at San Diego State (10 p.m. ET, The CW): The defending Sun Belt champions travel 3,000 hours to take on a San Diego State team that co-won the Mountain West last season in the middle of the night, and the visitors are only 1.5-point underdogs. Considering the Sun Belt is 0-7 against the Power 4 and, more concerning, 0-3 against the American thus far, a JMU win here is likely the Sun Belt's only path to the Playoff.
4(tie). Mississippi State at South Carolina (4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network)/Florida at Auburn (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): We covered Mississippi State-South Carolina on Wednesday. The hour isn't nearly as late for Jon Sumrall and Alex Golesh, who open their respective conference-game tenures against each other, but the opportunity is the same.
The good news for all four involved: the SEC clearly shapes up to be the strongest and deepest conference in college football, opening the door for as many as six members among the final 12. The bad news: the SEC clearly shapes up as the strongest and deepest conference in college football. With the top two, six of the top 10, and nine of the AP Top 25, there will be ample opportunity for a surprise team to win their way into the CFP. But it's a near lock that, if (these four teams) can't be (whoever they're playing on Saturday), it almost certainly won't be them.
6. No. 11 BYU at Colorado State (7:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Colorado State has looked really good thus far in home wins over Wyoming and Southern Utah. Now it's time to see how real the Rams really are. Jim Mora is 20-7 since the beginning of 2024, and now has an opportunity to score the biggest Group of 6 win of the non-conference season, a belt currently worn by Tulsa for its win over Oklahoma State (sorry, Western Michigan). BYU hosts Notre Dame next month so their CFP chances wouldn't be shot with a loss here by any means, but it obviously wouldn't help.