Calling it now: Arch Manning will be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft

We don't do Bold Predictions until August around here, but I wanted to get this one off my chest now because: A) it's the topic of conversation this week, and B) it doesn't seem all that bold.

To me, it's obvious. Arch Manning will be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. When I tweeted this on Tuesday evening, I quickly learned this was not the consensus view among the masses. That's fine.

Allow me to explain.

Here's what I'm not saying: Arch was not the best player in college football in 2025. He may not even be the best in 2026, either. He was bad against Ohio State, and borderline unplayable a few weeks later against UTEP. (Remember when people thought he had a shoulder injury? Turns out, Arch just has a weird throwing motion sometimes and Manning Face is hereditary.) Arch is not a perfect prospect, he needs to improve his accuracy on short and intermediate throws; ironically, this was an area where his precedessor Quinn Ewers excelled.  

"You wouldn't be saying this if his last name wasn't Manning!" Sure, maybe not. In this scenario where Arch Manning becomes Timmy Jones, is he still 6-foot-4, 225 pounds? Can he still outrun defensive backs? Does he still have highlights like this?

Timmy Jones, with those measurables and those highlights, is at least in the conversation to be the 1.1.

But his last name is Manning. There are no guarantees in life, and certainly not in scouting football players. I'm not going to guarantee Arch will be an All-Pro level quarterback. The odds are always long. But coming from a bloodline that produced the No. 2 pick, the No. 1 pick, the No. 1 pick, and later went on to win four Super Bowls and play in 20 Pro Bowls between them, is as close to a guarantee on the box you're ever going to get. If it's close to Arch and someone else, the tie goes to Arch. More on that below. 

Let's talk about Arch himself. Arch finished 42nd nationally in passing efficiency. (Ty Simpson, the second quarterback taken last week, was 41st.) Remove his first three games, and he jumps to 30th. In the month of November alone, he was 19th. The more Arch played, the better he got. A novel concept, I know. He was the best player in burnt orange and white in the Florida and Georgia losses. His completion percentage isn't always pretty, but: A) I've already short and intermediate accuracy is the one area he legitimately needs to improve, B) his receivers could have been better, and C) a lower-than-expected completion percentage is the flip side of Arch's best quality. He is always, always, always trying to extend plays and push the ball down the field. As a prospect, Arch profiles much closer to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert than Uncle Peyton. 

He has eight games with 4+ touchdowns, including four of his last six. The lows can be low with him, but the highs are astronomical. His supporting cast will be better this fall, starting with the acquisition of the second best wideout in college football and, it turns out, he Arch played all of 2025 with a foot injury he sustained in 2024. 

"Julian Sayin and Dante Moore are better than Arch!" Are they, though? Sayin benefitted from a wide receiver room with the No. 4 pick at one wideout, Jeremiah Freaking Smith at the other, and a second-round tight end Max Klare between them, and the moment looked too big for him in the Indiana and Miami losses. Sayin lacks Arch's size and athleticism. Dante Moore has Arch's size, but is not the same as a runner. 

Keep in mind, the NFL doesn't view these guys as they were in 2025. They see them as they will be in the spring of 2027, and then as they project to be in September 2029. 

Now let's do some Game Theory. Imagine you're the general manager of the team with the No. 1 pick in next year's draft. If you draft Arch and he fails, that's on him. If you pass on Arch, he succeeds elsewhere, and your guy fails? Your career as an NFL general manager is over. 

Again, there are no sure things in this game. But to pass on Arch for someone else? You'd better be surer than sure.

"What you're saying isn't even that bold." I agree! Matt Miller, Dane Brugler and Nate Tice -- far wiser souls than I -- all have Arch as their projected 1.1. I didn't see my stance as controversial until it received the blowback it did, and I find the arguments against Arch as next year's top prospect uncompelling, and so I wanted to get all my points in one place as we have this argument for the next 360-ish days.

Let's check back next April when Arch is the first player to shake Roger Goodell's hand at the National Mall in our nation's capital and I'm shoving this piece in all of the doubter's faces. Or when he's not, and this article is zapped from existence.