It's Kane Wommack vs. Diego Pavia in Tuscaloosa. There's a formula out to beat Kalen DeBoer's Alabama and Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia knows it by heart, because he invented it. In Vandy's 40-35 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama last season, Pavia totaled 40 combined rushes and passes, while Alabama ran 45 plays... total.
In their 24-3 win over the Tide last November, Oklahoma called just 11 pass plays to 25 runs for Jackson Arnold. In their 31-17 win over the Tide to open this season, Tommy Castellanos completed just nine passes for 152 yards while carrying the ball 16 times. Alabama's defenses have consistently struggled to contain the quarterback run game dating back to the Nick Saban era, and that has not changed when the defense changed hands to Wommack. They're often confused and a step slow to react, and also high on their own supply. Last year's Vandy loss came the week after the Georgia win (sound familiar?), and Oklahoma two weeks after the Tide beat LSU by nearly 30 points in Baton Rouge. The Michigan and Florida State losses came after long layoffs.
So, there's a lot to like here if you're No. 16 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). And for as dangerous as Vanderbilt is in the run game, the pass game has added a new element to punish wandering eyes. Last year, the 'Dores completed 30 passes of 20-plus yards across 13 games; they're already at 20 through five contests this year.
The problem for Vandy, however, is that if we're aware of all this, No. 10 Alabama is, too. The Commodores are not going to sneak into Bryant-Denny Stadium undetected and disrespected. And for all the struggles DeBoer has had, they've all come away from home. He's 9-0 at home. If Alabama jumps out early, it's tough to see Vanderbilt overcoming event a modest deficit on the road.
But let's say Vandy's up 14-7 midway through the second quarter, goes on a 7-minute drive to set up a field goal with a minute and a half left before halftime, and Vandy gets the ball to open the second half. Alabama is going to feel like it's drowning on dry land.
The stakes for Vanderbilt. Officially, this is the biggest game since Oct. 4, 2008, when GameDay came to Nashville for No. 13 Auburn at No. 19 Vanderbilt, a game the 'Dores won and moved up to No. 13 before dropping their next four on their way to a 7-6 finish. Vanderbilt also enjoyed back-to-back 9-win seasons under James Franklin, ending both 2012 and '13 in the AP Top 25. So it's not as if you have to go back to ancient times to find successful Commodore squads.
But, c'mon. A win here likely vaults Vanderbilt into the AP top-10 for the first time since 1947 and fully moves Clark Lea's team into the upper echelon of the conference. They are by no means home free with a win here -- after a bye, Vandy gets LSU, Missouri and Texas in succession -- but if you can beat Alabama at Alabama, who can't you beat?
And now it's make-or-break time for Mike Norvell. No. 18 Florida State was the toast of college football on Aug. 30 and carried it forward for the better part of three weeks, until losing last week at Virginia. There's no shame in losing on the road in Friday night in conference play -- one might ask why the ACC required Florida State to do that, when there's so much to be gained for the conference had FSU come in unbeaten -- but here they are. If Florida State does not beat the No. 3 team in the country on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC), they'll be 3-2 overall and 0-2 in ACC play. They don't play another ranked team all season, and unless you're a believer in NC State or Florida, they're not likely to play another ranked team all season.
In other words, Norvell really needs to win this game. So, how does he win it?
I don't think Florida State wins by playing it safe defensively. The Seminoles are not likely to win 24-17, and they're not likely to force three-and-out after three-and-out. The worst case scenario for Tony White's defense is not a touchdown surrendered, but a touchdown surrendered over a 12-play, 80-yard drive where Castellanos is off the field for 7-odd minutes. I think Florida State needs to play hyper aggressively on defense where they may give up a 3-play, 80-yard touchdown drive, or they may force a fumble or grab a tipped interception. Either way, your offense is on the field quickly, with the opportunity to wear down Miami's defense.
Additional Games:
-- West Virginia at No. 23 BYU (10:30 p.m. ET Friday, ESPN): We've got two of the most mountainous teams in college football facing off, for the first time in Provo. But these two are not the same. Morgantown lies at 961 feet above sea level, while BYU is more than 4,500. Anyway, WVU's Day 1 QB1 has already entered the transfer portal, so it's really tough to see WVU going on the road and winning a conference game at 10:30 body clock time on short week travel.
-- Colorado State at San Diego State (10:30 p.m. ET Friday, CBS Sports Network): A decent chance this is Jay Norvell's final game at CSU.
-- Clemson at North Carolina (noon ET, ESPN): When the ACC put its schedule together, surely the conference imagined this as a marquee event, perhaps as a lead-in to Miami at FSU. Instead, it's a pair of teams that are a combined 0-5 against the Power 4; UNC has been out-scored by a combined 82-23 by TCU and UCF, and a Clemson team that's tied for last in the ACC and 1-5 in its last six vs. the P4.
-- Kentucky at No. 12 Georgia (noon ET, ABC): Georgia hasn't lost consecutive games since the final two contests of 2018, hasn't lost consecutive regular season games since October 2016, and hasn't lost games over consecutive weeks since September 2016. Kentucky has lost eight straight against the Power 4. So, yeah.
-- Wisconsin at No. 20 Michigan (noon ET, Fox): This feels like a vintage Jim Harbaugh Michigan performance here. What I mean by that is Michigan wins a 28-10 game that feels like 58-10.
-- Air Force at Navy (noon ET, CBS): The beginning of the 2025 Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. Navy won it last year, while Air Force went 0-2 in these games last season.
-- No. 7 Penn State at UCLA (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): The most Penn State thing ever would be to win this game 48-0 with a yardage advantage of something like 683 to minus-120, where the various algorithms move the Nittany Lions back up to No. 3 in the country.
-- No. 9 Texas at Florida (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Every Arch Manning game is a Referendum Game until it's not. What's the real Arch Manning, the one who lost his team the Ohio State game and would've lost to UTEP if it was anyone other than UTEP, or the one who went 18-of-21 for 309 with three TDs against Sam Houston? Was that a mirage or a turning of the corner? Which performance is most relevant, and why?
-- Boise State at No. 21 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Credit to Notre Dame, who quite often plays a repetitive schedule, for lining up back-to-back opponents for the first time in program history. Unfortunately for the Irish, this isn't last year's Boise State team. The Broncos allowed 71 points in their two games away from the blue turf, and now must face a Notre Dame offense that's absolutely humming. Still, dropping 50 on the Broncos might just eliminate the entire Mountain West from Playoff contention, and may not be enough to get the Irish back in the field, either. Notre Dame does not play another currently-ranked team all season.
-- No. 24 Virginia at Louisville (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): If Houston isn't the most overlooked undefeated P4 team, Louisville is. Tony Elliott beat Florida State last week, now he must defeat human nature as his suddenly-ranked Cavs must go on the road to play a team every bit as good as they are.
-- Washington at Maryland (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN): Nothing says Big Ten like Washington at Maryland. Friend of the site Chris Hummer had a great stat: Maryland's 2025 freshman class as many players that have played 90 snaps than the rest of the B1G combined. The Terps get Washington at home after the Huskies geared up for the physical and emotional challenge of Ohio State at home. I like the Terps.
-- Kent State at No. 5 Oklahoma (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network): I'm interested in this game for how OU plays QB2 Michael Hawkins. Hawkins has only thrown three passes this year as OU worked to retain the true sophomore's redshirt. Now, he's the starter until he's not. So on one hand, Brent Venables and Ben Arbuckle will want to throw as many times as possible and play 80-plus snaps to get him as comfortable as they can for No. 9 Texas in Dallas next week. On the other hand, OU's new backup is a kid by the name of Whitt Newbauer. While Mr. Newbauer was on the SoCon's All-Freshman Team last year, he's not the guy you want playing Texas. So on the other hand, Oklahoma will want to pull Hawkins in the second quarter, lest Hawkins hit his thumb on a helmet or step on an ankle. How will Venables strike the right balance?
-- No. 11 Texas Tech at Houston (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): Going to be a lot of red in the TDECU Stadium stands on Saturday evening, but which shade? Every Techsan within 100 miles of Houston will want to get eyes on perhaps the best Red Raider team ever, or at least their lifetimes.
-- Minnesota at No. 1 Ohio State (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Minnesota has won at Ohio Stadium once since 1950. If the Gophers win, I'll write this column naked for the rest of the season.
-- Mississippi State at No. 6 Texas A&M (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Mississippi State hasn't won a road SEC game since squeaking by Arkansas 7-3 on Oct. 21, 2023. That won't be the blueprint for Jeff Lebby on Saturday. However, the Bulldogs rushed for 203 yards in last week's loss to Tennessee, the most in an SEC game since the Dan Mullen days. Run the ball, keep it close, and hope the gods smile on you at the end.
-- Duke at Cal (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): If only there was a way to put Washington and Cal in the same conference, and Maryland and Duke in the same conference.
Here's this week's FootballScoop podcast previewing this weekend's action.