If words won't sway a conflicted player from transferring, perhaps numbers will.
A study by Chris Hummer of CBS Sports of every recruit rated in the site's top 247 nationally from the classes of 2018 to 2021 (nearly 1,000 in all) found that players who remain at the school they signed without of high school through the duration of their college career were roughly five times as likely to be drafted as those who transferred.
According to the study, Top 247 recruits from the high school classes of 2018-21 who did not transfer were drafted 53.6 percent of the time, compared to players who did transfer. That group heard their name called at the NFL Draft just 11.4 percent of the time. In all, 307 Top 247 recruits since 2018 were drafted; just 61 transferred.
Now, several caveats apply:
1. There could be a chicken-egg situation at play here. As Bud Elliott points out, this study tracks only elite recruits. If a Top 247 player leaves his original school, the most likely reason was that he was either overrated as a recruit, or there's some off-field reason preventing him from remaining with his original school. Either way, the factor(s) that forced him to transfer and go undrafted very well could have led him to go undrafted had he stayed put, too.
This makes sense and I’m glad Chris put a number on it.
— Bud Elliott (@BudElliott3) May 27, 2025
Guys in the top 247 are typically signing with big-time schools. Big time schools rarely let top rated recruits who are already a hit or on track to be a hit. Leave to the extent that it is under their control by paying… https://t.co/X8SZfIbwKR
2. Every situation is different, and a transfer that doesn't end in an NFL draft contract could still be a successful one for football reasons. For instance, say a player has suffered multiple injuries that cost him a season and some athleticism and the NFL views him a borderline draft pick and a statistical long shot to make a team, and an even longer shot to last three seasons in the league. At the same time, that player is a proven commodity at the college level, and he has a million-dollar offer to play his final college season elsewhere. He's already graduated, so academics aren't a factor. In this scenario, playing a "pro" season at the college level could still be a fruitful move for the player.
3. As we all know all too well, transferring isn't always a player's decision.
Transferring is a major life disruption any way you slice it -- new people, new home, new school, new coaches, new teammates -- and now we have hard data showing it's a less likely path to every player's ultimate goal.