New Mexico has a chance to be the third team in 30 years to pull this statistical feat off

New Mexico is the talk of college football right now. Not only are the Lobos 6-1 this season and sitting atop the Mountain West after Saturday's 21-16 win over North Dakota State, they're just fun. Head coach Jason Eck, 15-5 in his two seasons, has captured the affection of casuals and die-hards alike with his creative run game concepts and his willingness to be goofy.

Bits are fun, but no one would care if New Mexico wasn't winning. And New Mexico is winning in large part due to a defense that's chasing down a truly historic season.

The Lobos lead the nation in scoring defense, surrendering a scant 11.3 points per game. They've held three opponents to seven, another to 10, allowed 14 to Oklahoma in Norman, and on Saturday limited NDSU to just 16.

The Lobos also lead the nation in takeaways. Their eight fumble recoveries are two off the national lead, and their 15 interceptions are first in the nation by two. Opposing passers are nearly twice as likely to throw a pick than a touchdown (eight in 200 attempts), and nearly as likely to be intercepted as to throw even a 20-yard completion (18). UNM's turnover number is admittedly buoyed by a six takeaway performance in a 70-7 thumping of FCS Mercyhurst, but the Lobos have turned their opponents over at least twice in every contest thus far, including three against Oklahoma and five against UTEP. 

While they're admittedly only halfway there, Spence Nowinsky's defense is chasing a truly historic season. Since 1995 (the earliest year in the Sports Reference database), only two defenses have finished first in points allowed and turnovers claimed. The legendary 2001 Miami unit finished a relative mile ahead of the competition, allowing only 9.1 points per game while forcing a stunning 4.1 turnovers per game. (Having 15 future draft picks on your depth chart is advantageous, it turns out.) The other unit was 2022 Illinois, who led the nation at 12.8 points per game allowed and 2.5 takeaways per game. 

Ranking No. 1 in the country, in any category, in any category, for any amount of time, is impressive on its own. To do so in maybe the two most important statistics in football, this deep into the season, as a Group of 6 program in today's college football... well, it's worth writing about. 

"Something I'm happy about is we got nine starters on defense who are seniors," Eck said earlier this year. "So all these SEC coaches will be seeing how good our defense is and they'll look up all those guys they'd like to have play for them and they're going to see they're seniors. They have no eligibility left to transfer to the SEC next year."

As expected, Eck's Lobos don't have much room to spare in either direction. Defending national champion Indiana is second at an even 12 points per game, with North Dakota State not far behind at 12.5. UCLA is second in takeaways at 3.1 per game, forcing 22 in seven outings to UNM's 23. Even a slight drop off in either direction would cost these Lobos from joining the national champion Hurricanes and the '22 Illini (who managed to turn an historically great defense into an 8-5 record).

Such a statistical anomaly begs the question: Why is leading the nation in scoring defense and turnovers an anomaly in the first place? The opposing offense can't score if they don't have the ball, right? I have a theory. 

We're obviously talking about slight degrees in separation here -- it's difficult to force 2.5 or more turnovers per game and still allow more than 20 points per game. Painful as it might be for coaches to admit, some of it boils down to simple good fortune. Forcing fumbles may be a skill, but the nerds in college football have proven over the years that recovering fumbles essentially boils down to luck. Similarly, training your D-line to bat down passes is something you can emphasize in practice, but it's not up to you whether that deflected ball falls to the arms of a waiting linebacker or to an unoccupied patch of grass. 

I think the other part is emphasis. Forcing turnovers invites an inherent amount of risk that a defense focused first, second, and third on sure tackling is not willing to accept. A linebacker attempting a punch-out accepts the risk that he's going to miss and the running back is going to spin forward for an extra 10 yards. A corner baiting an interception on a hitch route invites the opportunity for a stop-and-go. Over the course of the season, losing even a couple of those bets could be enough to knock you from first in scoring defense to third. 

So far, New Mexico is better than every other FBS team at both assignment-sound, sure-tackling nuts-and-bolts defense, and also the fireworks of taking the ball from the opponent. If they can keep at this pace for the rest of the season, they'll go down as one of the truly elite defenses of this century, and win a Mountain West title along the way.