Dear precious reader,
Do I think this series we do here is the reason why the College Football Playoff is moving from 12 teams to 24? I do not. It would be a hefty exaggeration to say that.
However, I do think the Playoff is doubling in size against our collective will because of the issue that this series has done a better job of documenting than any one else in college football. And that reason is this: the Big Ten has been getting its collective butt kicked since signing its massive deal with Fox, CBS and NBC, starting in 2023.
As we've documented since then, the Big Ten has not delivered the windfall of viewers the networks paid for. The conference doesn't have as many A- or B-plus level brands as the SEC, those A/B brands don't play each other as often as they do in the SEC, the Big Ten doesn't play as many compelling non-conference games as the SEC, and its games aren't as easy to find as the SEC. And that's why we're getting 24. Tony Petitti believes (mistakenly, in my opinion) that 24 will coax his non-Michigan/Ohio State schools to play better non-conference opponents and that, by lowering the bar to compete for a national championship, casuals will be more inclined to watch No. 16 USC visit 4-2 Wisconsin (airing this Saturday on NBC, likely to an audience of less than 4 million.)
As we've laid out over and over, no team in college football draws a crowd like Ohio State, but no team is a better week-to-week draw than Alabama. And right behind them, Georgia, Texas, LSU, and the like. And when Alabama isn't playing one of those brands, Alabama-Kentucky is appointment viewing in a way that Ohio State-Illinois simply is not.
Petitti has convinced the rest of college football's power brokers that beefing up December won't break September, October and November. This time next year, we'll begin to know if the risk paid off.
Appearances by conference
27: SEC
13: Big Ten
4: ACC
2: Big 12, Pac-12
Appearances by program
5: Alabama
4: Texas
3: LSU, Ohio State, Ole Miss
2: Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas A&M
1: Boise State, BYU, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia, Iowa, Louisville, Michigan, Mississippi State, Nebraska, North Carolina, TCU, USC, Washington, Washington State, Wisconsin
The most-watched ACC game thus far was the ABC Saturday Night affair between No. 1 Miami and Clemson, which just missed the cut at 4.63 million. (For the record, that's the lowest ABC Saturday Night game thus far; the other six games thus far have averaged 9.625 million.) The most-watched Big 12 game was Houston at Texas Tech, the Friday night affair that drew 3.03 million on Fox.
Appearances by network
16: ABC
3: Fox, NBC
2: CBS
1: ESPN
Here's something I bet the average fan wouldn't have guessed: While six of the top seven games thus far have been played in the noon or prime windows, the most-watched window in total is in the mid-afternoon. ABC has largely turned its 3:30 p.m. ET window into The Alabama Hour and it's paid off: the Tide's games with Kentucky, Florida State and Tennessee each drew between 7 and 8 million, and they'll be back in that time slot again this Saturday against Texas A&M. Red River also nearly hit 10 million, out-drawing Indiana-Nebraska earlier that day by 45 percent.
NBC also found success in airing a Labor Day Sunday doubleheader. The Apple Cup outdrew a massive Oregon-USC tilt in prime time, and led into a rare head-to-head win against ABC, with Wisconsin-Notre Dame from Green Bay beating Louisville-Ole Miss from Nashville by more than 1 million.
And, really, that dynamic right there explains why we're getting a 24-team Playoff. The SEC wins in rating because it's a cohesive conference made of contiguous states, a homogenous culture, and at least 10 A or B-plus level brands, yes, but also because its games build off each other. The Big Ten chased three paychecks from three networks, but each game is left to fend for itself with no lead-in, and they're getting shelled in the ratings.
The Big Ten got paid, and college football's soul has to underwrite the check.
Appearances by time slot
Noon: 6
Afternoon: 8
Prime: 7
Special: 4
1. Ohio State-Texas -- 13.99 million (ABC)
2. Georgia-Alabama -- 12.24 million (ABC)
3. LSU-Ole Miss -- 10.9 million (ABC)
4. Ohio State-Indiana -- 10.38 million (Fox)
5. Texas-Oklahoma -- 9.82 million (ABC)
6. Texas-Tennessee -- 9.75 million (ABC)
7. Notre Dame-BYU -- 9.16 million (ABC)
8. Ole Miss-Florida -- 8.29 million (ABC)
9. Oklahoma-Michigan -- 8.22 million (Fox)
10(t). Wisconsin-Notre Dame -- 8.1 million (NBC)*
10(t). Alabama-Tennessee -- 8.1 million (ABC)
12. Alabama-Kentucky -- 7.28 million (ABC)
13. Florida State-Alabama -- 7.01 million (ABC)
14. Indiana-Nebraska -- 6.73 million (Fox)
15. Clemson-LSU -- 5.75 million (ABC)
16. Ohio State-Iowa -- 5.79 million (CBS)
17. Texas A&M-LSU -- 5.71 million (ABC)
18. Washington State-Washington -- 5.45 million (NBC)*
19. Kentucky-Texas A&M -- 5.36 million (ABC/ESPN)
20. Alabama-Mississippi State -- 5.08 million (ABC)
21. Oregon-USC -- 5 million (NBC)
22. North Carolina-TCU -- 4.91 million (ESPN)*
23. Boise State-Oregon -- 4.83 million (CBS)
24(t). Louisville-Ole Miss -- 4.69 million (ABC)*
24(t). Florida-Texas -- 4.69 million (ABC)
* Special window
Source: Nielsen, Sports Media Watch