Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti and the 18 university presidents he represents have all the trappings to make you think they're smart people. Advanced degrees, impressive resumes, high salaries, all of it. Except, in Petitti's latest talking point for the league's preferred 24-team College Football Playoff, a question came to mind:
How smart can you really be if you don't understand basic human nature?
The Big Ten views a 24-team Playoff as the solution to its increasingly glaring September problem: its non-conference schedule is largely awful. North Texas and Kent State appeared in Fox's prized Big Noon window last month (against Indiana and Ohio State, respectively) because much of the conference refuses to schedule Power 4 teams outside their own conference. Of the 10 most-watched games so far this season (20 spots total), the SEC accounted for 14 spots to the Big Ten's three. The league deftly secured a multi-billion dollar deal from Fox, CBS and NBC back in 2022, and the Big Ten has not held up its end of the bargain. It's a massive problem for the conference.
The solution, in the Big Ten's mind, is a 24-team CFP.
“We need to play more good games. I think we’ve been really clear about that. We think that the season can start way better than it does. We’re committed to that. If we get to a 24-team Playoff, you are going to see many more competitive games scheduled. That’s my belief," Petitti said Thursday.
Let's ignore the fact that the conferences control their own scheduling and the CFP selection protocol, and thus have the power to change both at any time, and try to understand Petitti's logic on his level. I know that's difficult, but please try.
Petitti is right in that the growth of the CFP has decreased the reward of reaching a bowl game. It happened in expansion from two to four, and then again in the move from four to 12. Making the Gator Bowl simply doesn't mean what it used to mean.
And so now that we're in a Playoff-or-bust world, the CFP field needs to match the number of teams making investments to field Playoff-level rosters. Growing the field to 24 still only allows a third of the Power 4 to reach the postseason.
But here's where Petitti fails to follow his own logic. By doubling the size of the field from 12 to 24, you double the punishment for everyone who doesn't make it. In a Playoff-or-bust world, coaches will schedule to make the Playoff.
The majority of the Big Ten builds its non-conference schedule to avoid losses, first and foremost. A 3-0 record to start Big Ten play is treated as an accomplishment, no matter who those three wins come against.
"Why in the world would a Big Ten team who’s already playing nine conference games, why would you ever play one of those games?" Matt Rhule said last year, after Nebraska canceled a home-and-home with Tennessee that would've been played in 2026-27.
Rhule isn't necessarily wrong for thinking the way he does. Indiana was the No. 1 team in the CFP field last season wins non-conference wins over Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State. They were 13-0, it didn't matter who the first three wins came against.
For rank-and-file Big Ten teams, the logic will not change upon expansion from 12 to 24. In fact, Big Ten coaches would be smart to read the room and schedule even softer in a 24-team world. If 9-3 gets you in the Playoff, and missing the Playoff gets you fired, by all means, schedule to 9-3.
Meanwhile, a 24-team Playoff would fundamentally change the DNA of college football's most valuable asset, the regular season. SEC ratings are through the roof, in large part because 10-ish teams are competing for 5-ish Playoff spots. In a 24-team world, those 10 teams are competing for eight to nine spots. The stakes of Saturday's No. 2 Georgia at No. 6 Alabama game would be: the winner is definitely getting a first-round bye, and the loser still might, too!
Right now, the SEC is the only thing standing between college football and a 24-team CFP. Are you willing to bet your entire sport on Tony Petitti's belief?