Those of us hoping against hope that the College Football Playoff will remain at 12 teams have been rooting for dysfunction. Dysfunction has always been a 15-point underdog to self-interest, and self-interest appears to have a 1st and goal at the 5-yard line.
That's according to SEC commissioner Greg Sankey's latest comments at the league's basketball media days on Wednesday. As we know, the idea of a 24-team CFP was birthed in the Big Ten and quickly won support from the ACC and Big 12, but can't move forward without the SEC, who remains the lone holdout. It sounds like the holdout won't last much longer.
At SEC basketball media days, Greg Sankey signaled what is widely expected: the league is open to a 24-team playoff if SEC scheduling expectations are met nationally, and that a decision should come "sooner rather than later."
— Pat Forde (@ByPatForde) October 14, 2026
The SEC moved to a 9-game conference schedule beginning this season, and still requires its 16 teams play a Power 4 non-conference opponent. The Big Ten, which has played nine conference games since 2016, does not require a P4 non-conference game (and has been getting killed in the ratings because of it). but commissioner Tony Petitti recently indicated his league would do so if the SEC supported a 24-team CFP. "If we get to a 24-team Playoff, you are going to see many more competitive games scheduled. That’s my belief," Petitti told On3 earlier this month. “We’ll commit to that." I think Petitti misunderstands human nature in his pledge -- if the punishment for missing the CFP goes up, coaches will schedule to avoid as many losses as possible -- but Petitti doesn't listen to me.
The Powers That Be running this sport know their customers don't want CFP expansion (every public poll tops out at 15 percent), and they also know doubling the CFP's size won't double the money. In fact, so long as 12 extra CFP games break even from the loss of the conference championship games, they'll probably go ahead with it.
Which begs the question: Why?
Expansion isn't about chasing new money. It's about protecting the money already in the system.
Presently, 11 of the 68 Power 4 schools make the CFP, which is great for us, the fans, because it keeps the stakes high throughout the regular season and produces a tournament where any of the 11 could reasonably reach the semifinals at least. It's not so great for the 57 Power 4 teams who don't make it -- and rely on the generosity of their fans to fund it. Doubling the number to 23 lets in a third of the Power 4 each season, keeping hope alive longer, and in more places. Given enough time, each Power 4 program should at least sniff the CFP once every handful of years, thereby keeping the checks coming and the ball rolling. Ohio State and Georgia may never play a true win-or-stay home game ever again, but Purdue and Vanderbilt would play a lot more of them. It is what it is.
One interesting offshoot if the Big Ten does agree to play 10 Power 4 games each season: I wonder if the SEC considers going back to eight conference games, with two Power 4 non-conference games required. Nine league games means eight more losses distributed among the SEC's 16 teams. So long as the CFP selection committee punishes losses more than it rewards victories, many SEC voices would argue the league is better off distributing losses to other conferences. If the SEC subtracted its ninth conference game and added a fourth non-conference game, the league's collective record over that week could move from 8-8 to, say, 13-3 or 14-2. (The SEC is 10-2 vs. the other P4 conferences so far this year.) That could then translate to seven, eight, 11 SEC schools making a 24-team CFP, or at least that would be the belief within the board room.
Schools like Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Kentucky could conceivably support it, giving them runway to schedule a major non-conference home-and-home in addition to their annual ACC in-state rivalries each November. An 8 + 2 model could open up a pathway for Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M to re-open their respective Big 8/Southwest Conference rivalries as well.
Of course, there are other factors to consider. ABC/ESPN control all SEC games, and so they'd rather see Oklahoma play Texas A&M than Oklahoma State. (The prospect of getting Georgia-Ohio State and Michigan-Florida in September can smooth a lot of things over, though.) There are also their own rivalry games to consider: games like Alabama-Tennessee and Texas-Texas A&M would have to be played biannually under the existing 8-game model.
I'm not saying an 8 + 2 model would happen if/when the Big Ten agrees to 9 + 1, just that self-interest may lead some SEC schools to push for it.
What I am saying, though, is that self-interest is pushing the Big Ten toward 9 + 1 and, in the process, the SEC to cast the final vote from 12 to 24. Cue the sad trombone.