1a. No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): The losing coach will have to experience something for the first time at his respective school: real disappointment. Both teams began the year with plans of playing meaningful football into January, and those dreams won't have made it out of September.
These teams arrived to the same spot via different paths. Texas A&M lost at home as a 17-point favorite to Kentucky because one of its most important players was lost for the year on the first play of the game, because both lines of scrimmage have regressed after losing multiple players to the NFL, and because its quarterback hasn't taken steps forward to mitigate those losses. LSU lost an entirely forgivable game to a formidable opponent in a once-in-a-lifetime environment. Still, one of these teams is going to be 0-2 in SEC play.
Will the Aggies or the Tigers be technically eliminated from the Playoff by Saturday night? No. But they will have to ask themselves an uncomfortable question, because deep down they'll already know the answer: Are we even good enough to climb out of the hole we suddenly find ourselves in?
1b. No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 USC (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC): It's the biggest USC home game since hosting Notre Dame in 2022, so the Coliseum should be rocking(?). Dan Lanning and Oregon are feeling the same thing as the teams above, except people didn't expect the Ducks to make the College Football Playoff -- they expected them to win it. Gary Patterson's defense so far has played like Alex Grinch's and D'Anton Lynn's: three of USC's four opponents have hit six yards per play, including a previously-lifeless Rutgers last week. Both of these teams still have to play Ohio State, and USC also has a November trip to Indiana.
3. Boise State at Western Michigan (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): James Madison's late night win at San Diego State last week kept the Sun Belt alive for the Group of 6's guaranteed spot, but the winner here will be the out-and-out favorite heading into conference play. The Bronco Bowl is one of two FBS matchups pitting defending conference champions -- points to all who can name the other -- and also pits two teams who played ranked Big Ten teams to (and beyond) the final whistle.
4. No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Jon Sumrall's team could jump from unranked into the AP Top 10 in a 2-week span with a win here, and the Gators are favored. The offense looks better than even the most optimistic projections, but the defense is still a work in progress. Pete Golding's team has to move on from the emotional high on Saturday night to play their first true road game of the season. The Rebels can bank three quality wins before the entire Big Ten Conference has one and head into their off week riding a high that Willie Nelson would envy.
5. No. 1 Texas at No. 14 Tennessee (noon ET, ABC): What is Tennessee? They're 3-0, with wins over Furman, Georgia Tech, and Kennesaw State. Why are they ranked 14th in the AP poll? Because they started at No. 20, and teams ahead of them lost while they were playing Furman, Georgia Tech, and Kennesaw State. Why did they start 20th? Great question. Last year's Volunteers outfit finished unranked after an 8-5 season that saw wins over 3-9 Syracuse, East Tennessee State, 4-8 UAB (fired their coach), 5-8 Mississippi State, 2-10 Arkansas (fired their coach), 5-7 Kentucky (fired their coach), 4-8 New Mexico State, and 4-8 Florida (fired their coach), and an 0-5 record against teams with winning records.
I'm not saying Tennessee is not going to win this game; Texas was 0-5 against the spread on the road last season, taken to overtime by two of the teams Tennessee beat, and lost to another. I am saying that no one can have any degree of confidence how good Tennessee actually is, and if they do win, it'd be their first over an FBS team with a winning record since Nov. 30, 2024.
6. No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Here's the thing with Michigan: are they one of the 11 best teams in the Power 4? Incredibly unlikely. And yet.
Michigan's schedule sets them up extremely well, with Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana all coming to the Big House. All four of those teams are currently ranked, and outside of Indiana, no one has any degree of confidence if they're actually among the top 25 teams in the nation. Sweeping their home games would get to Michigan to 10-2 and in the CFP, and that's not even accounting for the possibility of upsetting Oregon on the road, if that's even an upset at all. Bryce Underwood has 40 completions and 33 rushing attempts through three games; after logging only six carries against UTEP, I'll bet both numbers are in the 48 to 52 range after Saturday.
7. Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Oklahoma is likely to win the "first Playoff contender to two losses" race over A&M, LSU and possibly Oregon, simply because OU plays first on Saturday. Last year, Oklahoma scored on defense and hit 50-plus yard field goals in their road wins at Tennessee and Alabama, and that formula will have to be repeated and then some with a worse offense against a better opponent on Saturday.
8. No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State (7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network): State's reward for winning last week's showdown game is rolling into another showdown game a week later. Though the Bulldogs are the lower-ranked team, they're also the more battle tested with two Power 4 road wins. "Let's simply celebrate what has been," a column on State's website reads. "It has been incredible and has laid the groundwork for a memorable season in Starkville." Davis Wade Stadium will be ready to explode in celebration of this team, and particularly this quarterback, and Eli Drinkwitz's team will have to handle that if it wants to be taken seriously among the SEC's gaggle of Playoff contenders.
9. Oklahoma State at West Virginia (7 p.m. ET, FS1): Like Mississippi State-South Carolina last week, the winner of this game is allowed to dream big because they will have beaten their equal on the other side. It's also the best style contrast of the Week 4 slate; Drew Mestemaker is 13th nationally in passing yards, while WVU's Michael Hawkins, Jr., and Cam Cook are 11th and 12th nationally in rushing.