For the second year in a row, the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft traveled the unbeaten path. Just about the same number of people saw Fernando Mendoza as a top NFL prospect in his class when he was a Yale commit as a senior at Miami's Columbus High School as did Cam Ward back when he was running the Wing-T in suburban Houston -- three, the player(s) and their parents.
But as Ward and Mendoza hacked their way through miles of underbrush to make their way to Roger Goodell's podium, the vast majority of their peers simply stand up from their seat and stroll the proverbial red carpet to the NFL.
While there will always be outliers -- remember, five 2025 NFL All-Pros were taken after pick No. 100 or went undrafted -- most NFL first-rounders followed more or less a straight line. In a day and age when endless eligibility and unlimited transfers dominate the headlines, the majority of projected first-rounders were 4- or 5-star recruits, played their entire career with the school that signed them out of high school, and left for the NFL as soon as they could.
More than half of the projected first-rounders in Thursday's draft passed on their senior year -- oddly, a reassuring sign of health in the college-to-the-NFL system -- while only one played beyond his fifth season of college football. In fact, only one even played the standard five seasons of ball.
Projected first-rounders by high school class
2023: 18
2022: 11
2021: 1
2020: 1
Once again, the largest cohort of projected first-rounders were 4-star recruits, ranking roughly between 35 and 400 in their class. The recruiting services rank around 1,000 kids per year and FBS schools sign roughly 2,700 high school prospects per class; 5-stars represent roughly 3.5 percent of the first group and 1.3 percent of the second group, yet will occupy 16 percent of the first round.
Projected first-rounders by recruiting ranking:
5-star: 5
4-star: 15
3-star: 11
2-star: 1
Unrated: 0
Roughly two-thirds of the first-round played their entire career at one school. Following the early gold-rush days of the portal-and-NIL system, this number has largely stabilized (especially at positions other than quarterback) as rev-share allows schools to keep their best players.
Transfers or homegrown?
Transfers: 10
Homegrown: 22
We've covered this previously, but the Big Ten catching the SEC on the field is expected to show itself in the draft numbers this weekend, as well. The SEC is projected to produce just one top-10 pick for the first time since 2018, a year when the league still boasted 10 first-rounders.
Projected first-rounders by conference
Big Ten: 11
SEC: 8
ACC, Big 12: 5 apiece
Group of 6: 2
Notre Dame: 1
Draft slots via Dane Brugler's April 15 mock. All recruiting rankings via 247 composite.
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana)
As a recruit: A consensus 2-star recruit and the No. 191 quarterback in the class of 2022. Flipped from Yale to Cal on the eve of the February signing period in 2022. Offered by Cal offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave after Justyn Martin, the 20th-ranked QB in 2022, flipped from Cal to UCLA. A Miami native.
As a player: Redshirted in 2022, then joined starting lineup in sixth game of his redshirt freshman season. Threw 30 touchdowns in 19 starts at Cal, then 41 in 16 starts at Indiana. Led IU to college football's first 16-0 season since the 19th century while winning IU's first Heisman Trophy.
Note: Will be the sixth Heisman winner to go at No. 1 since 2017, and the eighth Heisman winner of the last nine to be taken first or second. Mendoza will join Jameis Winston, Cam Newton and Joe Burrow as the only players to pull off the Heisman Trophy/national championship/No. 1 pick trifecta. Will be IU's first 1/1 since 1938, and IU's first first-rounder since 1994.
2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese (Edge, Ohio State)
As a recruit: No. 212 player and No. 22 linebacker in the class of 2023 out of Cleveland's Glenville High School. While by no means overlooked, Reese ranked behind 13 other Buckeyes in Ohio State's fourth-ranked recruiting class.
As a player: Was a part-time player on a loaded defense until this past season, when he joined the starting lineup and promptly won the Big Ten's Butkus-Fitzgerald Linebacker of the Year and was a consensus First Team All-American.
Note: Would be the third Buckeye taken No. 2 this decade, following Chase Young and CJ Stroud.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauioga (OT, Miami)
As a recruit: The No. 10 player and No. 2 offensive tackle in the class of 2023. Signed with Miami out of IMG Academy, but prior to that played at Aquinas Catholic in San Bernardino, Calif., and Tafuna High School in Pago Pago, American Samoa.
As a player: Started 42 of 42 possible games at right tackle. Was an Honorable Mention All-ACC selection as a freshman, a Second Team All-ACC player as a sophomore, and won the Jacobs Blocking Trophy as the ACC's top offensive lineman as a junior. A Freshman All-American and a regular All-American. Allowed one sack in Miami's run to the 2025 national title game, and helped the Hurricanes lead the nation in scoring in 2024.
Note: Would be the first time The U produced top-3 players in back-to-back drafts since 1990-91.
4. Tennessee Titans: David Bailey (Edge, Texas Tech)
As a recruit: The No. 66 player and No. 7 edge defender in the class of 2022. Signed with Stanford out of powerhouse Mater Dei in Santa Ana, Calif. The highest-ranked recruit to sign with Stanford since 2018.
As a player: Led Stanford in TFL and sacks as a sophomore and junior before leading the nation as a senior with 14.5 sacks and finishing second with 19.5 TFL. Won the Big 12 Newcomer of the Year, the Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year, was a finalist for the Lombardi Award, and was a consensus First Team All-American for Texas Tech's first outright conference champion since 1955.
Note: Would be the first Red Raider off the board since Dave Parks went first to the 49ers in 1964.
5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State)
As a recruit: The No. 6 player and No. 1 safety in the class of 2023. Signed with Alabama out of Mill Creek High School in Hoschton, Ga. Collected his first offers in the spring of his freshman year.
As a player: The only freshman in Alabama history to lead the team in tackles and won the SEC Freshman of the Year, then became the most decorated Buckeye defender in program history despite spending just two seasons in the program. Participated in the College Football Playoff all three seasons as a collegian. As a junior, Downs was a team captain who won the Thorpe Award as the nation's top defensive back, the Lott Impact Trophy, and the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year award. The sixth two-time unanimous First Team All-American in Ohio State history, but the first defensive player, and became sixth Buckeye ever to win five national/conference individual awards.
Note: Father and uncle both played in the NFL, older brother is on the Colts right now, and older sister is in medical school. Just an absolutely disgusting family tree.
6. Dallas Cowboys: Sonny Styles (LB, Ohio State)
As a recruit: The No. 12 player and top-ranked safety in the class of 2022. Signed with Ohio State out of Pickerington Central in Ohio. Graduated high school a year early and played almost all of his freshman season at 17 years old.
As a player: Ranked fifth on the team in tackles at safety as a sophomore, then moved to linebacker in 2024 and trailed only Downs in snaps played among the defensive players while making the All-Big Ten Second Team. A First Team All-American as a senior in 2025 while wearing the coveted "Block O" on defense.
Note: Son of former Buckeye and NFLer Lorenzo Styles, Sr.
7. Washington Commanders: Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame)
As a recruit: The 80th-ranked recruit and No. 6 running back in the class of 2023. Signed with Notre Dame out of Christian Brothers College High School in St. Louis.
As a player: Moved into the starting lineup in the final game of his true freshman season after Audric Estime opted out of the 2023 Sun Bowl. Owns the Notre Dame record for most consecutive games with a rushing touchdown (13) and ran for a score in 25 of his 28 starts as a sophomore and junior. A Heisman finalist, a Doak Walker winner and a unanimous All-American in 2025 after rushing 199 times for 1,372 yards (6.89 per) with 18 touchdowns.
Note: I just now learned how to spell "Jeremiyah" without looking.
8. New Orleans Saints: Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State)
As a recruit: The No. 60 player and ninth-ranked receiver in the class of 2023. Signed with Ohio State out of IMG Academy, but played at Chicago's Marist High School prior to that.
As a player: Sharing touches with Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison, Jr., Tate caught 121 career passes for 1,872 yards and 14 touchdowns. Caught 18 passes as a freshman, 52 in Ohio State's national championship march as a sophomore, and 51 in 11 games as a junior. A First Team All-Big Ten selection and a Second Team All-American in 2025.
Note: Would be the 28th Buckeye taken in the first round since Urban Meyer's 2012 hiring, and mark the fifth straight draft in which an Ohio State wide receiver was taken in the first round.
9. Kansas City Chiefs: Rueben Bain, Jr. (Edge, Miami)
As a recruit: The No. 64 player and No. 11 edge in the class of 2023. Signed with Miami out of Miami Central.
As a player: The ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year and a unanimous Freshman All-American, Bain had a lighter sophomore season before roaring back in Miami's run to the title game, winning the Ted Hendricks Award as college football's top defensive end and the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Combined for 5.5 sacks against Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Ole Miss and Indiana.
10. Cincinnati Bengals: Mansoor Delane (CB, LSU)
As a recruit: Our first diamond in the rough in a while! Delane was the 651st-ranked recruit and 59th cornerback in the class of 2022. Signed with Virginia Tech out of Archbishop Spalding in Severn, Md.
As a player: Joined starting lineup during true freshman season, and was a Third Team All-ACC selection before becoming a consensus All-American in his one season at LSU. His 13 passes defended were second in the SEC.
Note: Would be the eighth LSU DB taken in the first round of the last 20 drafts.
11. Miami Dolphins: Keldric Faulk (Edge, Auburn)
As a recruit: The No. 75 player and No. 9 defensive lineman in the class of 2023. A Signing Day flip from Florida State to Auburn, signed with the Tigers out of Highland Home, Ala.
As a player: Started final 32 games as a Tiger, dating back to his freshman year. Made the SEC's All-Freshman Team and the Third Team All-SEC in 2025, but never led Auburn in sacks or TFL in his three seasons on the roster. Posted two sacks and five TFL in 12 starts last season.
Note: Would be Auburn's first first-rounder since 2020.
12. Cleveland Browns: Spencer Fano (OT, Utah)
As a recruit: The No. 95 recruit and No. 9 offensive tackle in the class of 2023. Signed with Utah out of Timpview High School in Spanish Fork, Utah.
As a player: One of two true freshmen to start at left tackle in 2023, then moved to right tackle as a sophomore. A First Team All-Big 12 selection as a sophomore, and then the Outland Trophy recipieint, Polynesian College Football Player of the Year, the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, and a consensus First Team All-American as a junior in 2025.
13. Los Angeles Rams: Jordyn Tyson (WR, Arizona State)
As a recruit: The 920th-ranked player and 131st-ranked wideout in the class of 2022. Signed with Colorado out of Allen, Texas.
As a player: Led the pre-Prime Buffaloes in receiving yards in nine games as a true freshman, missing the final three games after suffering a major knee injury that cost him his entire 2023 season. At Arizona State in 2024, led the Big 12 champions with 75 grabs for 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns, missing the Big 12 title game and Peach Bowl quarterfinal while winning the Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year. Again led ASU in 2025 with 61 catches for 711 yards and eight touchdowns.
14. Baltimore Ravens: Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Oregon)
As a recruit: The No. 116 recruit and No. 4 athlete in the class of 2023. Signed with Oregon out of Idaho Falls, Idaho.
As a player: Joined the starting lineup as a junior, where he immediately put in arguably the top tight end season in Oregon history. The Big Ten Tight End of the Year and the school's first Mackey Award finalist, Sadiq led the club with 51 grabs for 560 yards and paced all FBS tight ends with eight touchdown catches.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vega Ioane (G, Penn State)
As a recruit: The No. 574 player and No. 26 interior offensive lineman in the class of 2022. Signed with Penn State out of Graham-Kapowsin High School in Washington state.
As a player: Joined the starting lineup as a redshirt sophomore in 2024, then became a finalist for the Polynesian Player of the Year, and a consensus Second Team All-American.
16. New York Jets: Makai Lemon (WR, USC)
As a recruit: The No. 44 player and seventh-ranked wide receiver in the class of 2023. Signed with USC out of Los Alamitos, Calif.
As a player: Saw action at wide receiver and cornerback as a true freshman, then led the Trojans in catches in 2024 and '25 while also returning kickoffs. Hauled in 79 passes for 1,156 yards and 11 touchdowns, which was enough to win USC's second Biletnikoff Award.
17. Detroit Lions: Monroe Freeling (OT, Georgia)
As a recruit: The 33rd-ranked player and fifth offensive tackle in the class of 2023. Signed with Georgia out of Oceanside Collegiate Academy in Charleston, S.C.
As a player: Joined the starting lineup full-time as a true junior in 2025. A 2-time SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week and a Second Team All-SEC performer.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Jermod McCoy (CB, Tennessee)
As a recruit: The No. 1,481 recruit and No. 129 recruit in the class of 2023. Signed with Oregon State out of Whitehouse, Texas.
As a player: Would be the most unique path to the first round in a long, long time. McCoy was an unheralded recruit who started five games as a freshman at Oregon State, then became a Second Team All-American as a sophomore at Tennessee while ranking fourth among underclassmen with 13 passes defended -- four picks and nine PBUs. McCoy then missed the entire 2025 season while rehabbing an offseason knee injury.
19. Carolina Panthers: Dillon Thieneman (S, Oregon)
As a player: The No. 990 player and No. 85 safety in the class of 2023. Signed with Purdue out of Westfield, Ind.
As a player: The Big Ten Freshman of the Year, Big Ten Newcomer of the Year, and a Third Team All-American in 2023, then led all Big Ten defensive backs in tackles in 2024. Transferred to Oregon ahead of 2025 and became the first Duck DB to become an Academic All-American and a Second Team All-American on the field. Ranked second on the team in tackles while adding 3.5 TFL, one sack, five PBUs, and two interceptions, including one to beat Penn State and all but end the James Franklin era.
20. Cleveland Browns: KC Concepcion (WR, Texas A&M)
As a recruit: The No. 568 player and No. 82 wide receiver in the class of 2023. Signed with NC State out of Chambers, N.C.
As a player: Immediately joined NC State's starting lineup and set a Wolfpack freshman record with 71 grabs, 839 yards and 10 touchdowns en route to ACC Rookie of the Year and Freshman All-American honors. Caught 53 passes and six touchdowns as a sophomore before leading A&M with 61 grabs for 919 yards and nine scores in 2025, the most receiving yards by an Aggie since 2016.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Omar Cooper, Jr. (WR, Indiana)
As a recruit: The No. 299 recruit and No. 43 wide receiver in the class of 2022. Signed with Indiana out of Lawrence North High School in Indianapolis.
As a player: Redshirted in 2022, did not join full-time starting lineup until 2025. Led the national champions with 69 receptions for 937 yards with 13 touchdowns. Caught a touchdown in two of IU's three CFP wins, and nabbed five balls for 71 yards in the national title game.
Note: Would mark the first time Indiana has produced two first-rounders.
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Akheem Mesidor (Edge, Miami)
As a recruit: Our first super-senior! Mesidor was the No. 636 recruit and No. 28 defensive end in the class of 2020. Signed with West Virginia out of Clearwater Academy in Clearwater, Fla.
As a player: A consensus Freshman All-American in 2020, then an Honorable Mention All-Big 12 player in 2021 before transferring to Miami in '22. Earned two All-ACC Honorable Mentions while missing most of the 2023 season before putting it all together as a sixth-year senior, making the All-ACC First Team and a Second Team All-America, ranking in the top five nationally in sacks (12.5) and TFL (17.5). Collected 5.5 sacks in Miami's CFP run, including two apiece against Ohio State and Indiana.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Kadyn Proctor (OT, Alabama)
As a recruit: The ninth-ranked player and top offensive tackle in the class of 2023. Signed with Alabama out of Southeast Polk High School in Des Moines, Iowa. Briefly transferred back home to Iowa following Nick Saban's retirement before returning to Tuscaloosa.
As a player: A Day 1 starter at left tackle for the Crimson Tide. Won the Jacobs Blocking Trophy as the SEC's top offensive lineman and a consensus First Team All-American in 2025.
Note: Would push Alabama's streak to 18 consecutive drafts with a first-rounder. Would become Nick Saban's 50th first-rounder at Alabama and the 10th offensive lineman among that group.
24. Cleveland Browns: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (S, Toledo)
As a recruit: The No. 1,376 recruit and No. 106 safety in the class of 2022. Signed with Toledo out of Lakewood High School in St. Petersburg, Fla.
As a player: Joined starting lineup as a true sophomore, then broke out as a senior by becoming the second Rocket to make the AP All-America team in 18 years. Became first MAC player to make the Thorpe Award semifinalist list in more than a decade.
Note: Would be Toledo's second first-rounder in the past three drafts. The rest of the Group of 5 has one in that span.
25. Chicago Bears: TJ Parker (Edge, Clemson)
As a recruit: The No. 50 recruit and No. 6 defensive lineman in the class of 2023. Signed with Clemson out of Central Phenix City High School in Phenix City, Ala.
As a player: A Freshman All-American in 2023, then set a school record with six forced fumbles while ranking among the top 10 nationally with 11 sacks and 19.5 TFLs in Clemson's ACC title run in 2024. Dropped to five sacks and 9.5 TFL in 2025.
Note: Would be the 19th first-rounder of the Dabo Swinney era at Clemson.
26. Buffalo Bills: Malachi Lawrence (Edge, UCF)
As a recruit: The No. 1,157 player and No. 137 defensive lineman in the class of 2021. Signed with UCF out of Dupont Manual High School in Louisville.
As a player: Joined the regular lineup in his third year in the program, and made his first All-Big 12 team as a fifth-year senior. Posted seven sacks and 11 TFLs, finishing his career 10th in Knights history with 20 sacks.
Note: Would be the highest-drafted Knight since Blake Bortles went third in 2014, and would be the highest a UCF defender has ever been taken.
27. San Francisco 49ers: Caleb Lomu (OT, Utah)
As a recruit: The No. 119 recruit and No. 13 offensive tackle in the class of 2023. Signed with Utah out of Highland High in Chandler, Ariz.
As a player: Joined starting lineup as a sophomore and started 24 games at that spot over the past two seasons. A First Team All-Big 12 selection as a junior in 2025.
Note: Unsurprisingly, would mark the first time Utah has produced two first-rounders.
28. Houston Texans: Chase Bisontis (G, Texas A&M)
As a recruit: The top interior offensive lineman and 47th overall player in the class of 2023. Signed with Texas A&M out of Don Bosco Prep in Ramsey, N.J.
As a player: Started immediately as a true freshman, making ESPN's Freshman All-American team. A Third Team All-SEC selection in 2025. Has a "Humble Beast" tattoo on his left underarm.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Denzel Boston (WR, Washington)
As a recruit: The 896th-ranked player and 130th wide receiver in the class of 2022. Signed with Washington out of Emerald Ridge High School in South Hill, Wash.
As a player: Waited his turn behind three future top-100 picks through his first two seasons on campus, then caught 125 passes over the past two seasons. A Third Team All-Big Ten honoree in 2025 while pacing the Huskies with 62 grabs for 881 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Note: No apparent relation to former NFL wide receiver David Boston. Nonetheless, would increase Boston's lead over New York to 2-0 in all-important "NFL first-round wide receivers named after the city" category. Majored in "Comparative History of Ideas," presumably a first for the NFL.
30. Miami Dolphins: Chris Johnson (CB, San Diego State)
As a recruit: The No. 1,376 player and No. 127 cornerback in the class of 2022. Signed with San Diego State out of Eleanor Roosevelt High School in Eastvale, Calif.
As a player: SDSU's defensive freshman of the year in 2022, then the special teams player of the year in '23. An All-MW Honorable Mention in 2024 before becoming a consensus Second Team All-American and the MW Co-Defensive Player of the Year as a senior. Posted 46 tackles, four interceptions, two pick-sixes, nine PBUs, three TFL, one sack, one forced fumble, and two quarterback hurries.
Note: Would be San Diego State's first first-rounder since 2018, and the earliest Aztec defender drafted since 1975.
31. New England Patriots: Blake Miller (OT, Clemson)
As a player: The 208th-ranked player and 16th-ranked tackle in the class of 2022. Signed with Clemson out of Strongsville, Ohio.
As a player: Started 54 of 54 games, and set the school record with 3,778 career snaps played. The 25th player in school history with three All-ACC selections. Voted a permanent team captain by his teammates.
Note: Would be the 20th first-rounder of Dabo's time at Clemson, and first offensive lineman. In fact, would become Clemson's first offensive lineman taken in the first round since Lou Cordileone in 1960, who also played defensive line.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Colton Hood (CB, Tennessee)
As a recruit: The No. 374 player and No. 37 cornerback in the class of 2023. Signed with Auburn out of Eagle's Landing Christian in McDonough, Ga.
As a player: Started at Auburn, then split time at corner with Travis Hunter at Colorado in 2024 before ultimately landing at Tennessee. Scored two touchdowns while allowing only one in 451 coverage snaps. A Thorpe Award semifinalist and a Second Team All-SEC selection.