A coaching autopsy: Brian Kelly, LSU (Brian Kelly)

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Say what you will about Brian Kelly, but the man is a professional football coach. You don't win 297 games and counting at five universities and counting by accident. And yet Kelly is the first head coach since Gerry DiNardo (hired in 1995) to leave LSU without a national championship. How did a far more accomplished and talented coach fail to do what Les Miles and Ed Orgeron did? They understood what Kelly did not: to win at LSU, first you have to be yourself. 

What was the high point? Nov. 5, 2022. In his first crack against Alabama, Kelly secured LSU's first home win over the Crimson Tide since 2010. The 2-point pass from future Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels to Mason Taylor inspired Chris Fowler into, frankly, the most guttural scream I've ever heard him do, and the scene afterward was Pure College Football.

Those Tigers eventually climbed into the Top 5 before losing on the road to Texas A&M, and then they were run off the field by No. 1 Georgia on their way to a second straight national championship. But that moment wasn't about the present, it was about the future.

What was the low point? There were two -- the very beginning and the very end. 

The thing about "fit" is that it doesn't matter until it does. Nick Saban and Urban Meyer's lack of Southern roots never stopped them singing No. 1 recruiting classes and filling their trophy cases, because they never pretended to be Southerners. They were hard-asses brought to SEC Country to hard-ass their employer's football program to places they hadn't been in a while. Nothing more, nothing less. 

And yet, when you go back and watch the "my family" clip, you can't help but hear it. LSU didn't hire a neighbor to sip sweet tea with on the front porch, they hired a Midwestern hard-ass to whip the boys into shape and not be satisfied until LSU was the best program in college football. In the end, LSU got neither.

And then the second low point was Saturday night. It all played out in the third quarter last night. I don't think Nate Boerkircher and Jamarion Morrow's fourth quarter touchdown runs that pushed the lead to 49-18 even qualify; LSU was fully into acceptance mode by then. Consider that LSU actually led the game as the third quarter began. When the Aggies opened the second half with a 9-play, 56-yard touchdown drive, we were still in a football game. KC Concepcion's 79-yard punt return officially put the Brian Kelly era on life support, and by the time Jamarion Morrow strolled in for a 24-yard touchdown to make the score 35-18, there was no coming back at that point. 

Of course, it says a lot about what happened prior to Saturday night to put so much meaning on a single October football game, but the A&M-LSU contest evolved from a football game to a funeral in not even 11 minutes of game time. 

Where did Kelly go wrong? Here's a start.

Tommy Moffitt was LSU's strength and conditioning coach from 2000-21, which means he built three national championship teams, but it also meant he built the teams that went 11-11 and got Ed Orgeron fired. But, firing the guy who was a walking, talking institution at your place, and then having him come back to your place with the type of team you were supposed to have is the type of hubris they write novels about.

It all funneled into the problem above, Kelly thought he was going to come to LSU and outsmart everyone.

Where did Kelly go right? It took expert-level evaluation to see Jayden Daniels's three years at Arizona State and see a Heisman Trophy winner. And Daniels had to win a Heisman to salvage a defense that allowed more than six yards per play and 28 points a game. 

Where did LSU go wrong? Let's start here: the only reason Kelly's $53 million buyout doesn't seem eye-popping is because: A) LSU managed to get some surprising-in-retrospect language about offsets and deferred payments into the contract, and B) It's still leagues away from Jimbo Fisher's $75 million at Texas A&M.

Except, the same guy who gave Jimbo that buyout is the one who gave Kelly his 10-year, $95 million deal. 

Scott Woodward seemed more interested in making a hire that would burnish his reputation as a big-game hunter among ADs, and less interested in finding the right coach for LSU. And, as discussed in Sunday's FootballScoop podcast, it seems unlikely LSU will let him make the next hire unsupervised. 

Woodward has made some grand-slam hires in other sports, but his last two football hires have totaled nearly $130 million in buyouts and zero CFP appearances.

Where did LSU go right? Kelly was well supported throughout his tenure -- and to the end, too. Credit to the institution for doing today what needed to be done today.

Where does Kelly go from here? With half of his LSU contract still in front of him, Kelly clearly planned to continue coaching into the foreseeable future. He'll join James Franklin, Jimbo Fisher and Pat Fitzgerald as the most overqualified free agent coaches in what's certain to be a highly competitive cycle.

Where does LSU go from here? First, the Tigers need to get their own house in order and figure out who's making the hire before they even think about who to hire. But I'd also place a call to Lane Kiffin to make sure he doesn't sign anything before talking to us first. 

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