After weeks of previewing the games that impact the College Football Playoff race, we've come to a point where the picture is pretty simple: Oklahoma is in, and Clemson, Alabama and the Michigan State-Iowa winner will join them with victories Saturday. In the event Clemson or Alabama lose, Stanford, (possibly) North Carolina and (if things get really crazy) Ohio State are ready and waiting to fill their respective slots.
So instead of looking at the games that matter, this week we'll look back at the games that mattered, the (quite often entirely crazy) moments that shaped the season. And, yes, for the sake of argument we're assuming the Butterfly Effect does not exist that, had the events shown here ended differently, the rest of the season still plays out the same.
Let's start way back in Week 2.
SEPTEMBER 12 -- NEYLAND STADIUM, KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
If that didn't happen: Had Baker Mayfield not converted that do-or-die, fourth-and-goal to send the Sooners to a second overtime against Tennessee, the next month's loss to Texas eliminates Oklahoma entirely. And after OU finds its footing in midseason, the clicking-on-all-eight-cylinders Sooners then go on to eliminate Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State themselves, leaving the Big 12 on the outside looking in for a second straight year.
SEPTEMBER 19 -- KINNICK STADIUM, IOWA CITY, IOWA
If It Didn't Happen: For those who don't think Iowa belongs in the conversation, this was your chance. The Fighting Ferentzes have trailed in three games all year -- not at all since the first quarter of the Illinois game on Oct. 10, and never in the second half. Had Marshall Koehn not banged in this 57-yard field goal, Iowa would be playing this weekend to knock the Big Ten East champion out of the Playoff, not to win their way in.
OCTOBER 3 -- MEMORIAL STADIUM, CLEMSON, SOUTH CAROLINA
If that didn't happen: If Notre Dame converts that two-point conversion and beats Clemson in overtime, the Irish are in -- bar none -- and this weekend's debate is whether the Clemson-North Carolina winner or the Michigan State-Iowa winner joins Alabama, Oklahoma and Notre Dame in the playoff.
OCTOBER 17 -- MICHIGAN STADIUM, ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN
If It Didn't Happen:A bananas moment also had a major effect on the season. If Blake O'Neill simply wraps his fingers around the oblong hung of synthetic leather and sends it flying with his right foot, Sparty's win in Columbus essentially does not happen and Ohio State-Michigan is for the Big Ten East championship. And we all know how that turned out.
NOVEMBER 7 -- VAUGHT-HEMMINGWAY STADIUM, OXFORD, MISSISSIPPI
If It Didn't Happen: Just how serious is the CFP selection committee about rewarding conference champions? Had Ole Miss found a way to limit Arkansas to 24 yards on that fateful 4th-and-25, Saturday's SEC Championship would pit 10-2 Florida against 10-2 Ole Miss, while an 11-1 Alabama team that didn't win its division and didn't beat a current top-20 team sits at home, praying for chaos. Or, considering they are who they are, maybe the Tide is sitting at home while the rest of college football complains about a team that didn't win its division or beat a top-20 team still making the Playoff. Either way, it would have been fantastic theater.
NOVEMBER 28 -- STANFORD STADIUM, PALO ALTO, CALIFORNIA
If It Didn't Happen: Many experts who claim to be in the know (hand raised) believe, should lightning strike this weekend and either Alabama or Clemson stumble in their respective championship games, it would be Stanford -- not North Carolina or Ohio State -- who stands to swoop in and claim that fourth golden ticket. Had Conrad Ukropina not connected on this 45-yard field goal on the final play of the game last Saturday night, Notre Dame would be in the Cardinal's spot.
What's the lesson here? First and foremost, the season is a roaring river that twists and turns as boulders emerge and trees fall. We know where it will end, though we have no idea how it will get there. Our other lesson? The beauty of the four-team playoff. Case in point: Notre Dame. For the Irish, the difference between the sitting at home on New Year's Eve and claiming the No. 1 overall seed is four points.
The college football season -- it's beautiful, it's insane, it's unpredictable, and it's insanely beautiful because it's unpredictable.