Heading into his third season at Texas, Steve Sarkisian tops my "If not now, when?" coaches rankings.
The best explanation for "If not now, when?" is this: A family has spent two years waiting to move into their custom dream home. Day by day they've watched the foundation go down, the framing go up, then the bricks, the roof, the flooring, even the appliances get delivered and installed. And now it's time to move in.
If the general contractor were to explain there's a problem with the foundation and so move-in date would have to be delayed a few months, they wouldn't be abandon the project and find a new dream home... but they'd be pretty darn mad as they returned to their rent house.
That's where Sark is in his tenure at Texas. It's time to move in.
In a recent interview with the Pivot podcast, Sarkisian acknowledged this, though not in as many words:
"This looks like my team," he said. "It's Year 3. It feels and looks like my team. the way the players talk, the way they act, what they look like, the way they move, the way they run, how we practice, the speed, the tempo, all of those things. I'm like 'Man, ok, now we're about ready to go. This is what it is supposed to look like.'"
Sarkisian's two full recruiting classes (2022 and 2023) have ranked fifth and third, respectively, in the 247Sports composite. Of the 53 high schoolers the Longhorns have signed, six are 5-stars and 34 are 4-stars.
The 2023 Texas team will be one of the five most talented in college football and, equally important, one of the most experienced as well. Every single offensive contributor save running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson returns. What's more, Texas added Georgia wide receiver transfer AD Mitchell (a touchdown catch in each of UGA's four CFP wins over the past two seasons), whose presence should allow wide receiver Xavier Worthy to shake off his sophomore slump, provide space for slot receiver Jordan Whittington space to work over the middle, and give runway for Wyoming transfer Isaiah Neyor to work his way back into the lineup after missing all of 2022 with an ACL tear.
On defense, Texas lost both defensive tackles, an end, a linebacker and a corner, but the unit should be improved across the board.
Texas's success in 2023 boils down to three questions, one for each side of the ball and one existential query.
On defense, can Sark and staff generate a pass rush?
Texas showed night-and-day improvement in many areas from 2021 to 2022: from 102nd to 18th in yards per play, from 114th to 23rd in yards per carry allowed, and from 99th to 28th in scoring. In other areas, though, the improvement was more like night-and-twilight. After registering 1.67 sacks per game in 2021, the 'Horns improved to 2.08 in 2022 (from 98th to 77th nationally).
Without a consistent pass rush, Texas forced 14 turnovers in 13 games (104th) and placed 94th on third down (41.3 percent).
If Texas can consistently hound the quarterback, the defense could be championship caliber.
On offense, can Sark finally produce consistent quarterback play?
If Texas can throw the ball consistently, the loss of Robinson and Johnson (2,576 scrimmage yards and 26 touchdowns in 2022) will be mitigated.
If Texas can throw the ball consistently, the Longhorns will avoid their all-too consistent scoring droughts:
-- After scoring 31 points in their first seven drives vs. Texas Tech, the Horns scored 3 points in their final five opportunities
-- A 31-point first half vs. Oklahoma State, then a 3-point second half
-- A 31-point first half vs. Kansas State, then a 3-point second half
-- 3 points, total, vs. TCU
-- 3 points in the first half in the Alamo Bowl vs. Washington
-- In 2021, Texas scored 38 in the first half vs. OU and 10 in the second, then 24 points by the first drive of the second half the following week vs. Oklahoma State and none thereafter.
If Texas can avoid second-half droughts, the 4-10 record in one-score games under Sarkisian should improve.
If, if, if.
For the first time in his three seasons, Sarkisian returns a veteran quarterback after starting first-time starter Casey Thompson in 2021 and freshman Quinn Ewers in 2022. Sarkisian rode with Ewers through horrendous performances against Oklahoma State and TCU -- he was 36-of-88 for 490 yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs in those games, both 7-point losses -- in a clear belief that those experiences will pay dividends in the future.
(This, by the way, is why the talk of Arch Manning supplanting Ewers is nonsensical.)
Overall, just how good a head coach is Sarkisian in the first place?
In eight and a half seasons as a head coach, Sarkisian is 59-47. He's never finished higher than No. 20 in the AP poll and he's never played for a conference title. He's 13-12 at Texas. Texas was in the same "Hey, the pieces are lining up!!!" phase in 2019, fresh off a Big 12 title appearance and a Sugar Bowl victory in 2018 with Sam Ehlinger and most of the offense back; Texas went 8-5 and finished 25th in the AP poll.
Anyone waiting to see it to believe it is entirely justified. Hype, recruits and experience won't kill the Curse of Dareus and the Tessitore Hex, performance will.
On the flip side, Sonny Dykes's resume (71-63, no conference titles) did not look all that different from Sark's at this point last year. With Lincoln Riley no longer in the conference, the only Big 12 coaches who've actually won the Big 12 title game are Baylor's Dave Aranda and K-State's Chris Klieman... and if Texas maintains one of its 31-17 leads in Lubbock or Stillwater, it's Texas, not K-State, playing TCU for last season's Big 12 championship.
Sarkisian has been a positive ambassador of the program, and he's steadily upgraded the roster. Assistant coaches left good jobs to work for him, and for the most part they've stuck around. Gary Patterson signed on to spend a year working for him. The Arch Manning was a tremendous feather in his cap -- not only because it landed the No. 1 player in the 2023 class, but because the First Family of Football sent its heir apparent to him over the pursuits of Kirby Smart and Nick Saban.
Because of those reasons, barring an unforeseen collapse Texas won't look for a new general contractor if the house isn't ready as scheduled come December, but the point here is that it shouldn't come to that. It's time to move in.