It's time for coaches to start going for two when up seven

The revolution is over, and the nerds have won. The nerds have used the Internet to successfully bully enough coaches, or infiltrated front offices and coaching staffs themselves, to fully transform fourth down. 

Their victory was on full display in Sunday night's Super Bowl LVII, when the Philadelphia Eagles notched two successful fourth down conversions, plus an offsides penalty on Kansas City to move the sticks a third time.

Furthermore, most viewers second-guessed Chiefs coach Andy Reid in real time when he didn't go for a 4th-and-3 from the Eagles' 24. The Football Gods seemed to render karmic judgment when Harrison Butker's kick doinked off the left upright.

At the college level, in 2009 only four FBS teams attempted at least 30 fourth downs. In 2022, 31 did, led by Texas Tech's 52 tries and Baylor's 47.

Really, the rise in fourth down attempts boils down to an evolved understanding of risk and reward. In a game where possession of the ball is everything, if your team averages six to seven yards per play, chances are you're going to pick up three or four yards far more often than not. There are all sorts of downstream benefits of becoming a team that weaponizes fourth down, but that's not the point here.

If football teams are re-evaluating risk and reward, there's another opportunity to flip games to their advantage, and a perfect example happened to pop up last night.

When Kansas City scored to go up 34-27 with 9:22 to play in the game, Chiefs coach Andy Reid sent his PAT team on the field without a second thought, but I think he should've gone for two there.

To my eyes, the risk/reward see-saw is pointed 90 degrees upward in favor of reward.

If Kansas City goes for two there and misses, they're up a touchdown. Philadelphia kicks a PAT after a touchdown to tie the game at 34-34. That removes the possibility of a 35-33 lead with a Chiefs PAT and an unsuccessful Eagles 2-point try, sure. There is some risk here. But even in the worst outcome, Kansas City is not trailing in the game.

But the reward for a successful 2-point conversion for the Chiefs there is enormous with a capital E, N, O, R, M, O, U and S. If Kansas City goes up 36-27 in that situation, the game is completely different. 

A 9-point deficit completely changes how the Eagles approach the ensuing possession. They'd have to be more aggressive knowing they'd need two scoring drives in the game's final nine minutes, which increases the possibility of a turnover for the Chiefs defense. Even if the Eagles do score quickly, Kansas City gets the ball back with a 36-34 lead. A Chiefs touchdown in response all but ends the game, and a field goal wildly tilts the game in their favor, taking a field goal out of the equation for Philadelphia.

NFL teams convert 2-point tries around 48 percent of the time, which represents better odds when you consider NFL kickers convert PATs around 94 percent of the time -- about as likely as a Steph Curry free throw, making a miss surprising but not shocking.

In Sunday night's game, the odds were even more stacked in favor of a Kansas City 2-point try, considering the Chiefs had Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid's play sheet as assets. 

Imagine if the controversial third-down holding penalty wasn't called. Philadelphia was about to get the ball back with around 100 seconds to play and a timeout in their pocket. The difference between a 38-35 Chiefs lead and a 39-34 Chiefs lead is a simple 3-yard gain.

If I'm Andy Reid, I like my odds there.

Obviously, the real Andy Reid disagreed. He kicked the PAT without an apparent second thought, then watched his defense failed to stop Jalen Hurts on Philadelphia's 2-point try. (There probably isn't a tougher NFL quarterback to stop in a 2-point scenario than Hurts considering how ox-strong he is as a runner.) 

As we know, things worked out for Kansas City. This time.

The next time your team scores a touchdown to go up seven late in the game, keep this in mind: the difference between a 7-point lead and a 9-point lead isn't two points, it's a totally different ballgame.