Breaking down the biggest games on the college football schedule: On the Line

Strap in for the biggest game in NC State history. North Carolina State has played football since 1892, won 11 conference titles (seven ACC) and appeared in a handful of New Year's Day bowl games, so I don't type the previous sentence lightly. But Saturday's trip to Clemson, the 1,274th in program history, will be the first an AP Top 10 Wolfpack team has faced an AP Top 10 opponent.

At the same time, No. 10 NC State at No. 5 Clemson (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) marks the 21st such Clemson game... of the Dabo Swinney era. 

NC State's players enrolled hoping to play in games such as these, Clemson's players did so expecting to -- multiple times per season. In addition to an experience gap, Clemson also has the home field advantage. 

But the higher the obstacles, the greater the rewards for NC State. The Wolfpack will be at the center of attention in college football on Saturday (so long as Hurricane Ian complies) with College GameDay in town in the morning and ABC beaming the game to a national audience in prime time. 

DJ Uiagaleilei enjoyed, perhaps, a breakout game at Wake Forest last week, throwing for 371 yards on 9.0 per attempt with five touchdowns against no interceptions. Even still, DJ U ranks a modest 40th in passing efficiency, and NC State's secondary will likely be the best Clemson faces all season, or at least until late December. Opposing passers have hit 56.2 percent of their throws for just 4.9 per attempt with three touchdowns against seven interceptions. On the other side, Devin Leary is a curious 64th in passing efficiency thus far -- he's averaging just 7.1 an attempt -- but Clemson is an even more curious 92nd against the pass. 

NC State defeated Clemson a year ago, snapping an 8-game winning streak, then gagged away its first ACC Atlantic title with a 1-point loss at Miami and a 3-point loss at Wake Forest. The Wolfpack would not be home free with a win Saturday -- they host No. 23 Florida State next Saturday, and Wake comes to Raleigh in November -- but a victory does place the program in a spot it's never been before: with a clear shot at the College Football Playoff. 

Jim Harbaugh enters his House of Horrors. Let's begin here: a Jim Harbaugh Michigan team has never won at Kinnick Stadium. 

In 1984, with Harbaugh on the sidelines nursing a broken arm, No. 18 Iowa blanked unranked Michigan, 26-0. The Wolverines returned a year later for the biggest game of the '85 season, when No. 1 Iowa outlasted No. 2 Michigan, 12-10. Here's a fun snippet from the Cedar Rapids (Iowa) Gazette's game story:

The Wolverines proceeded to score the game's only TD, but it also was marred by controversy. Michigan quarterback Jim Harbaugh several times asked for and received permission from Referee Jerry Hendrickson to walk away from his center and halt the 25-second count because of 'excessive crowd noise.'

The horde of Iowa fans hooted derisively at these rulings, thinking the noise did not prevent Harbaugh's teammates from hearing his snap count.

'It was obvious their quarterback could hear,' said Fry. 'He was standing there and reading our goal-line defense. He was audibilizing at the line. There was nothing the referee could do about it because of that new rule they passed.'

Harbaugh returned as head coach in 2016, when No. 2 Michigan fell to unranked Iowa, 14-13. 

So, in three trips to Kinnick Stadium, Harbaugh has witnessed Michigan score a total of 23 points. But he's not alone: In Iowa's last six games against AP Top 5 foes, the Hawkeyes are 5-1, and the one loss came on a 7-yard touchdown pass as time expired. 

Twenty-three should be plenty to win on Saturday (noon ET, Fox), but Michigan brought an offense scoring 48 points a game in 2016 and mustered just 13 on 201 yards. Michigan has averaged 50 so far this season, though against defenses that rank 58th, 118th, 125th, and 129th in scoring. Iowa ranks first.

And just like that, Arkansas's season is on the brink. Sam Pittman's team dominated Texas A&M everywhere but the one place it mattered last Saturday, and now No. 2 Alabama comes to town (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).

The Tide is a 2- to 2.5-touchdown favorites against the 20th-ranked Hogs, who haven't beaten an Alabama team since Mike Shula was the head coach. 

Arkansas has a puncher's chance in this game, though, led by the nation's best pass rush (five sacks per game). Alabama has only allowed four sacks through for four games, but the Tide front's performance against Texas should inspire confidence that the Razorbacks can get some clear shots against Bryce Young. (Getting him down is another matter.) 

In last year's 42-35 loss -- the closest outcome in this series since 2010 -- KJ Jefferson went throw-for-throw with Young, hitting 22-of-30 throws for 326 yards with three scores and no picks. He'll need a similar performance or Arkansas's season, while not over by any means, will be certain to end without an SEC West championship.

On the plus side for Arkansas, Alabama has grossly underperformed expectations in four of its last five true road games, and was lucky not to lose as a 21-point favorite earlier this season.

Additional Games:

-- UTSA at Middle Tennessee (7:30 p.m. ET Friday, CBS Sports Network): A C-USA title game preview? Middle Tennessee was blown off the field in its opener against James Madison, but has been dominant since, including against Miami. 

-- No. 15 Washington at UCLA (10:30 p.m. ET Friday, ESPN): Half the Pac-12 is undefeated in league play, but that number will be cut by one by the time Saturday morning begins. 

-- San Diego State at Boise State (8 p.m. ET Friday, FS1): There hasn't been a MW championship game without one of these teams since 2013 (though, oddly, they've never played each other), but neither appear to be vintage versions of themselves thus far. Boise is 68th in FEI; SDSU is 84th. Boise has lost its offensive coordinator, its quarterback, and to UTEP in the past week, while SDSU was thoroughly outclassed by Arizona and Utah.

-- Illinois at Wisconsin (noon ET, BTN): One of these teams enters this game top five in yards per play defense and top-25 in rushing offense, and it's not Wisconsin. What a moment it would be for Bret Bielema to 'out Wisconsin' Wisconsin on his first trip back to Wisconsin since his 7-year run as the head coach at Wisconsin. Let's say Wisconsin one more time before we move on: Wisconsin. 

-- Texas Tech at No. 25 Kansas State (noon ET, ESPN+): The two surprise winners from the Big 12's opening week face off in the Little Apple. Tech hasn't started Big 12 play 2-0 since 2013, Kliff Kingsbury's first season and hasn't won in Manhattan since 2008. That was also the last time the Red Raiders had beaten Texas in Lubbock, until last Saturday. 

-- No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss (noon ET, ESPN): Kentucky's No. 7 ranking is its highest since 1977, while Ole Miss seeks its first 5-0 start since 2014, a year that saw the Rebels climb all the way to No. 3. 

-- No. 18 Oklahoma at TCU (noon ET, ABC): Former OU quarterback Chandler Morris, TCU's starter out of camp, is available for this game, but Max Duggan is playing so well he might just be unbenchable. The senior leads the nation in passing efficiency, hitting 47-of-61 throws for 695 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions. If TCU can protect Duggan this game will be really interesting. Oklahoma ranks 11th at 3.25 sacks per game, and SMU got to Duggan five times last week. After losing last week to Kansas State, the Brent Venables era in Norman begins, in earnest, in Fort Worth.

-- Navy at Air Force (noon ET, CBS): The first leg of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy begins in Colorado Springs. The service academies split their three games a year ago, allowing Army to retain the trophy. Air Force has taken the last two over Navy.

-- Oregon State at No. 12 Utah (2 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Networks): A clearly improved Oregon State team starts conference play with the Pac-12's two best teams, or at least its two highest-ranked. Despite losing turnovers 4-zip last week, Oregon State played No. 6 USC to a 17-14 score last week in Corvallis. Might an even ledger in Salt Lake City lead to a Beavers victory? Remember, Oregon State was the only Pac-12 to defeat Utah last season, 42-34 in Corvallis.

-- East Carolina at South Florida (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Hurricane Ian moved this game from Tampa to Boca Raton.

-- Northwestern at No. 11 Penn State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Fear the Wildcats? Northwestern is 1-3 on the year, but 1-0 in B1G play. In fact, Pat Fitzgerald's team is 15-2 in even-numbered regular season Big Ten games since 2018. Northwestern also won its last trip to Beaver Stadium, way back in 2014.  

-- Rutgers at No. 3 Ohio State (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN): Ohio State is 8-0 against Rutgers (all games since the Knights joined the B1G) and the average margin of victory is 42 points. The more you know.

-- No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox): A rematch of the 2021 Big 12 Championship, and the beginning of a gauntlet for both teams. Baylor must trek to Morgantown, Lubbock, Norman and Austin, leaving home dates with No. 9 OSU, two frightening Kansas teams, and rival TCU. OSU might have the toughest road schedule in the conference, with trips to Waco, Norman, Fort Worth, Manhattan and, yes, Lawrence. Suffice to say, both teams need to win this game. 

-- No. 22 Wake Forest at No. 23 Florida State (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): The undercard to the main event in Clemson, upstart Florida State has a chance to make a statement against established contender Wake. Sam Hartman threw for 337 yards and six touchdowns on 29 attempts (no picks) against Clemson last week, but the 'Noles have been pretty good against the pass so far. Jordan Travis is back for Florida State, so expect another shootout.

-- Iowa State at Kansas (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): After a decade-plus as the sport's biggest afterthought, every Kansas game is now an event. Kansas (1-0 in conference play) can bury Iowa State (0-1) in the Big 12 race with a win as the Jayhawk seek to return to the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2009.

-- Michigan State at Maryland (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1): A "loser gets buried" game between to 0-1 B1G East teams. 

-- Florida Atlantic at North Texas (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+): With 1-0 WKU playing Troy out of conference, the winner of this game pitting two 1-0 teams will be alone in first place in the division-less Conference USA. 

-- No. 17 Texas A&M at Mississippi State (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Texas A&M defeated Miami and Arkansas while combining for 607 yards. Either the Aggies' offense improves or they stop winning, perhaps as soon as this week. Mike Leach is 8-4 against A&M all-time, including a 26-22 victory in College Station last season.

-- Liberty at Old Dominion (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Is this the continuation of a rivalry? These relative FBS newcomers, 193 miles apart in Virginia, have played three times previously and are scheduled to meet four more over the next six years. Liberty leads this historic series, 2-1. 

-- LSU at Auburn (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): I'm not saying it's going to happen, but there's a greater than zero chance the loser of this game finishes last in the SEC West. 

-- West Virginia at Texas (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1): An elimination game in the Big 12 title race; both teams enter at 0-1 in league play. 

-- Indiana at Nebraska (7:30 p.m. ET, BTN): Nebraska looks to snap a 9-game FBS losing streak, while Indiana seeks to end its 9-game Big Ten skid. Something's gotta give, folks. 

-- Colorado at Arizona (9:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network): Another game, another opportunity for Colorado to improve(?) its claim(??) for the worst start to a season by a Power 5 team in college football history.

-- Stanford at No. 13 Oregon (11 p.m. ET, FS1): Remember when this was the game of the year in the Pac-12? From 2009-15, Oregon went 55-8 in league play, won the conference four times and played in five BCS/NY6 bowls, while Stanford was 50-13 with three Pac-12 championships and five BCS/NY6 bowls. The conference champion was either Oregon or Stanford for those seven straight years. Oregon served Stanford its only loss in 2010, and Stanford returned the favor in 2012. 

Oregon has mostly returned to form, Stanford has not. If the Cardinal do not overcome the 17-point spread to win the game, they will drop to 2-10 in their last 12 Pac-12 games, the worst 12-game conference stretch since 2006-07, the end of the Walt Harris era and the beginning of the Jim Harbaugh regime.