July 1 marks the third birthday of the NIL era in college sports, and like any living, breathing thing, the industry has grown in ways few could envision back on July 1, 2021.
The firm Opendorse -- which long ago positioned itself as the primary clearinghouse for all NIL activity -- on Monday released its annual report, which found massive growth across the industry from 2021-22 to 2023-24... and even more growth on the horizon.
Starting at the macro level, the NIL "industry" started at $917 million in 2021-22, according to the report, and experienced modest growth from Year 2 to Year 3, but by 2025-26 will balloon to $2.55 billion in payments to college athletes.
Opendorse projects 43 percent year-over-year growth from 2023-24 to 2024-25, driven in large part by this month's release of EA Sports College Football.
Still, collectives account for just over 80 percent of the overall NIL market, and 72 percent of money raised by collectives goes to football players. Women's basketball players surpassed their male counterparts on the hardwood in money earned in the commercial NIL market, but football far outstrips both... and everyone else.
The typical men's basketball player earns the most amount of NIL money, but that's largely because there are fewer mouths to feed on the hardwood than the gridiron.
As evidence, Opendorse found that the starting quarterback for a top 25 team is expected to earn $821,000 and change in 2024, up from $648,000 last year. The firm anticipates his "salary" to grow to $1.31 million by 2025, with $990,000 expected to come via revenue sharing. With schools opting in to share up to $22 million per year (to start) directly with athletes beginning in 2025-26, Opendorse forecasts 4.5 percent to go to the starting quarterback. I'm... not so sure about that.
Even with the typical QB1 eating up such a big "cap number," Opendorse still projects him earning more than $130,000 in collective payouts as well.
Perhaps most enlightening, Opendorse found transfers earn more money per transaction and more money in total than their peers who remain with the school they signed with out of high school. Why do so many players transfer? Because the system pays them to.
