According to ESPN's FPI, the most likely College Football Playoff field for the 2023 season is Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia... and Texas. Taking things one step further, FPI projects Ohio State vs. Texas in the Rose Bowl and Alabama vs. Georgia in the Sugar, with the winners meeting Jan. 8, 2024, in Houston.
FPI is ESPN's proprietary algorithm. I can't tell you what goes into the Football Power Index, whether it's better than SP+, FEI, Sagarin, or any of the others that attempt to wrangle a 12-game season among 133 teams into a scientific ranking, and I also can't tell you how much weight the CFP selection committee gives FPI, if any at all. But I can tell you it's the most prominent of the computer rankings, simply because it's ESPN proprietary algorithm and ESPN owns the television rights to the Playoff. (If nothing else, an Ohio State-Texas/Georgia-Alabama Playoff would certainly be good for ESPN.)
ESPN released its post-spring, pre-spring Transfer Portal window rankings this week, which has Ohio State a clear No. 1. The Buckeyes have a score of 31.5, more than 10 percent above No. 2 Alabama (28.2). Georgia was a close No. 3 at 27.4. LSU checked in above Texas at No. 4, but FPI gives the fifth-ranked Longhorns a 34.2 percent chance of reaching the Playoff, well above No. 6 Michigan (25.9 percent).
FPI gives Ohio State an 82.2 percent chance of returning to the CFP, while Georgia (63.1) and Alabama (62.1) are nearly equal.
For what it's worth, FPI also loved Texas last year. The 8-5 Longhorns finished No. 7 in FPI and No. 25 in both human polls. (FPI was not alone in its love for the Longhorns; UT was No. 7 in SP+ and No. 6 in FEI.) The metric projects 10.1 wins against 2.6 losses for Steve Sarkisian's team, and gives them a 54.4 percent chance to win the Big 12.
The 2023 Texas football season will be an illustration that the computers can spot something thus far invisible to the human eye, or that there's no mathematical formula that can match the eye ball test -- with very little room in between.
Here's the full FPI Top 25:
1. Ohio State -- 31.5
2. Alabama -- 28.2
3. Georgia -- 27.4
4. LSU -- 22.1
5. Texas -- 21.9
6. Michigan -- 21.4
7. USC -- 19.9
8. Clemson -- 19.4
9. Notre Dame -- 18.4
10. Penn State -- 17.5
11. Oklahoma -- 16.9
12. Tennessee -- 15.2
13. Oregon -- 15.0
13. Florida State -- 15.0
15. Utah -- 14.9
16. Ole Miss -- 13.4
17. TCU -- 13.0
18. Florida -- 12.7
18. Texas A&M -- 12.7
20. Wisconsin -- 12.3
21. Washington -- 11.8
22. Texas Tech -- 10.8
23. Baylor -- 10.7
24. Oregon State -- 10.5
25. North Carolina -- 10.2
The most likely teams to reach the CFP:
1. Ohio State -- 82.2 percent
2. Georgia -- 63.1
3. Alabama -- 62.1
4. Texas -- 34.2
5. Michigan -- 25.9
6. USC -- 24.7
7. Clemson -- 24.2
8. LSU -- 23.7
9. Notre Dame -- 15.8
10. Oklahoma -- 10.7
10. Penn State -- 10.7
And the race for each conference championship:
American
1. SMU -- 41.7
2. Tulane -- 20.3
3. Memphis -- 15.9
ACC
1. Clemson -- 44.5
2. Florida State -- 17.0
3. North Carolina -- 15.9
Big Ten
1. Ohio State -- 71.2
2. Michigan -- 14.3
3. Wisconsin -- 5.9
Big 12
1. Texas -- 54.4
2. Oklahoma -- 24.5
3. TCU -- 5.7
Conference USA
1. Western Kentucky -- 39.8
2. Liberty -- 23.4
3. Louisiana Tech -- 16.7
MAC
1. Toledo -- 27.6
2. Ohio -- 18.1
3. Miami (Ohio) -- 15.7
Mountain West
1. Boise State -- 45.9
2. Fresno State -- 17.7
3. Air Force -- 8.5
Pac-12
1. USC -- 50.2
2. Utah -- 17.0
3. Oregon -- 16.9
SEC
1. Georgia -- 49.3
2. Alabama -- 40.9
3. LSU -- 7.1
Sun Belt
1. Troy -- 21.3
2. Marshall -- 19.0
3. Appalachian State -- 14.7