With one week to play, 11 teams have punched tickets to the College Football Playoff

Rivalry Weekend is behind us, and Championship Weekend is now upon us. That means nine games now separate us from Selection Sunday. (We have a lot of holidays in college football, don't we?)

With one weekend still to play, to my eyes 11 teams have played their way into the field. I've ranked them below in order of their relative comfort level heading into deliberations Saturday night and Sunday morning. 

1. Oregon -- The Ducks, No. 1 in the AP poll since Oct. 20 and No. 1 in every CFP poll to date, will be the top overall seed with a win in Indianapolis and no lower than fifth with a loss.

2. Texas -- Concerns about the 'Horns lack of marquee victories have evaporated as others around them have faded. The battle for No. 1 if Texas and Penn State won is interesting; Penn State would have just beaten the No. 1 team on a neutral field, while the 'Horns would have defeated every team on their schedule, something the Nittany Lions would not be able to say. Texas could be as high as No. 1 or as low as No. 7.

3. Penn State -- Another team without a marquee win, James Franklin's team can now earn the most impressive victory of the season if they defeat No. 1 Oregon on a neutral field. Penn State will be No. 1 with a win plus a Texas loss, or as low as No. 7 with a loss plus a Georgia win.

4. Notre Dame -- That Northern Illinois loss feels like six months ago now, right? The Fighting Irish have won 10 in a row, and own 10 victories by 10 points or more. The lone exception came against a Louisville team that whipped possible ACC champion Clemson at Clemson. Georgia also made ND's 31-13 win over Georgia Tech look quite impressive. Notre Dame will be No. 5 if form holds Saturday, and No. 6 if Penn State beats Oregon.

5. SMU -- The committee has been lukewarm on the Mustangs all season, but they shouldn't be. Rhett Lashlee's squad is really good. Case in point: The only teams to go undefeated in Power 4 conference play are No. 1 Oregon and these Mustangs. Because of that, SMU is in the field, playing to be as high as No. 3 or as low as No. 8. 

6. The Big 12 winner -- The most important development of the Big 12's weekend actually happened Thursday, when Memphis upset No. 18 Tulane and eliminated any faint chance of the conference missing the field entirely. The stakes this Saturday at AT&T Stadium are clear: the winner between No. 18 Iowa State and No. 16 Arizona State is in the CFP as the No. 4 seed, and the loser is out.

7. The Mountain West winner -- It's unlikely an 11-2 Boise State would make the field as an at-large; the Broncos played No. 1 Oregon as close as anyone other than Ohio State, but there's not enough meat on the bone elsewhere. Therefore, No. 11 Boise State has a good shot of remaining the No. 4 seed with a win, while No. 22 UNLV will trek to Boise on Friday night playing for the No. 12 seed, and the Broncos would be out with a loss. 

8. Ohio State -- As much as Ohio State fans would like to end the season and enter a 6-month slumber after Saturday, they must trudge forward with a shot at a national title. First-world problems. It will be interesting to see how the committee handles Ohio State and Penn State if the Nittany Lions lose to Oregon. Penn State would own a better record, but Ohio State would own head-to-head. Either way, the Buckeyes could be as high as No. 6 and seem unlikely to fall to No. 9.

9. Georgia -- It would've been extremely interesting to see how the committee would've handled a 9-4 Georgia. Alas, Georgia Tech could not get the job done, and the Bulldogs reached the field -- knighted by Joe Tessitore's magic scepter -- with their win on Friday. The Bulldogs will be as high as No. 2 and as low as No. 8. 

10. Tennessee -- The Vols averted disaster in rallying from down 14-0 to defeat Vanderbilt. Eli Drinkwitz argued any 10-2 SEC team should make the Playoff, and he was correct, he just wasn't talking about his own team. The Vols seem likely to remain behind Ohio State, and thus could be sent back to Athens for a rematch with Georgia in Round 1. 

11. Indiana -- Indiana smartly slid under the radar with a 66-0 shellacking of Purdue. The 11-1 Hoosiers will go on the road in Round 1, most likely as the No. 11 seed. There is zero chance an 11-1 Big Ten team is missing the field, no matter how those 11 wins were obtained. 

12. Clemson or Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss or South Carolina -- And here lies the rub. If Clemson beats SMU, the field is set. As ACC champs, the Tigers would be the No. 3 seed and advance to the quarterfinal round. If Clemson loses, the Tigers are out at 9-4. 

The debate would then go to 10-2 Miami or the trio of 9-3 SEC teams. Of the three, South Carolina is clearly playing the best right now, with six straight wins and three of them over ranked-at-the-time teams. The Gamecocks also lost head-to-head to Ole Miss and Alabama, and decisively in Ole Miss's case. 

Ole Miss, to these eyes, has the strongest case of the three. The Rebels beat South Carolina 27-3 back in October, but also lost at home to 4-8 Kentucky. 

However, the committee had Alabama above Ole Miss last Tuesday, and it's not clear what happened this weekend that would spark a reversal this Tuesday. 

Miami, meanwhile, has the strongest win-loss record of the four, but has lost two of its last three games. The 'Canes are likely to pick up a Top 25 win with Louisville's late success, though, and the 24-point win at Florida looks more impressive now than it did at the time, as does a 22-point win over 9-3 Duke. Miami and Ole Miss are the only teams among the four that have not been blown out, which has kept teams out of the field before.

Assuming favorites win this weekend (a dubious proposition always, but go with me here), I think this is the field next Sunday:

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Penn State
8. Georgia
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State