Playoff Push: Seven Week 5 games that will shape the College Football Playoff race (Iowa Football)

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The empty suits that this sport calls leaders are reportedly closer than ever to expanding the College Football Playoff from 12 teams to 24. The stated reasoning is so middle class teams in the power conferences can have something to play for again, now that bowls have lost their meaning and the 12-team bracket is evidently unattainable for them. 

You know, teams like Mississippi State and Iowa. 

1. No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (noon ET, ABC): Step into certain corners of the CFB Internet and you'll find people absolutely furious that GameDay went to SEC locations on the first four Saturdays of the season. (Look at the schedules, where else would you have sent them?) ESPN bowed to the uproar this week by leaving SEC Country for the first time and, of course, they're going to a Big Ten game. Irrespective of the chatter, the best scene of the weekend will be in Starkville -- where, by the way, GameDay has been once, in 2014. That was the last time State beat a top-10 team; the Bulldogs haven't played a top-20 matchup since 2017. They also haven't beaten Alabama since Nick Saban's first season, nearly 20 years ago. The stakes for the home team are blindingly obvious.

However, if I'm an Alabama fan, this is the most excited I've been for a game in the post-Saban era. Yes, the Tide played in the SEC Championship and the CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl last season, but that team had already bled by that point. This one hasn't. This one has an explosive offense and a penchant for going on massive runs:

-- 38-7 vs. East Carolina
-- 32-0 vs. Kentucky
-- 21-0 vs. Florida State
-- 35-3 vs. South Carolina

Yes, the Tide got themselves into holes against UK and FSU, but scoring a point a minute afterward is a neat party trick. Winning in Starkville sets up Alabama for a centerstage game against No. 2 Georgia next week, in what will then become the most exciting game of the post-Saban era. 

Also, I don't think I have to sell anyone on Keelon Russell vs. Kamario Taylor.

2. No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Iowa owns 31 all-time victories over Michigan and Ohio State, and 1962 stands as the one-and-only time the Hawks (not the Atlanta ones) beat the Wolverines and Buckeyes in the same season. And that didn't occur in back-to-back weeks. Both games were at home, and both ended with 28-14 final scores. That was a different era, obviously: none of the three teams involved were any good, lowlighted by Michigan's last-place finish in the Big Ten. (No, Kirk Ferentz wasn't the coach then. He started the following season.) 

So, a win here would be unprecedented in Iowa football history. It would also set the Hawkeyes up for something close to smooth sailing: Iowa doesn't play Indiana or Oregon, needing to just go 5-2 against Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska to make the College Football Playoff.

That's right, Iowa. All you have to do is beat Ohio State to be as close to a Playoff lock as a team can be on Oct. 3. The Hawkeyes won Ohio State's last visit to Iowa City, 55-24. (Yes, that happened.) The two games since then: Ohio State wins, 54-10 and 35-7. 


3(tie). 

Michigan at Minnesota (noon ET, Fox)
No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Auburn at No. 17 Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Louisville at NC State (3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network)

In Michigan, Missouri, Tennessee and Louisville, you have four CFP periphery teams who all took on losses. Another defeat removes them from contention entirely under the same rule by which Oklahoma and Texas A&M fell under last week: No, we aren't technically eliminated. But we're also not good enough to climb out of the hole we've put ourselves in. The odds of these teams going 4-0 are basically zero. 

7. No. 10 BYU at TCU (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): Two games separate BYU from one of the biggest regular season games in school history, when No. 3 Notre Dame comes to town on Oct. 17. The Cougars are home against Iowa State next Friday. Survive Fort Worth, and the Cougars are nearly home free. 


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